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Wednesday, January 8, 2014

8 and 8 x 2

Back to back years finishing 8 and 8.  Thats not the best trend.  However I have found my original respect for Coach Tomlin as he didnt let the whole season finish as it began.  Im also more of a fan of Haleys offense.  While others may not have noticed, his empty set has the personnel to transform into ANY other formation.  2 WR, or 3?  Check.  A RB?  Check.  A TE, or 2?  Check.  Using this, along with the no huddle, is a very deadly combination.

I hate the Refs.

Ok, so, where does that leave us?  With the 15th overall pick.  While my last posting was sold on us getting a franchise LT, Mr. Beachum may have swayed that if not more than a little.  For a guy thats only 6'3, he sure does hold his own over there.

FFWD to the National Championship game.  I was rooting for Auburn (no surprise, CAAAAMMMM), but found myself motivated while the Tigers were up 21 to 3.  I took another look at the Steelers last 4 draft years (10, 11, 12, and 13) and thought to myself "If Auburn can stick to their guns and not change their offense in the biggest game of their young lives, then why should I make all these concessions when building a true Steelers mock?  I then thought about the homework I did to build my most successful mock, 2010, where I called 7 out of the 10 picks correctly.  (Go ahead and beat that Bleacher Report, Kiper, etc.)  You cant.  You wont.  Nevertheless, I really stuck to what meant most at that time.  Need and history.  While the Steelers do generally draft the BPA, you have to have noticed that its the BPA that fills a need, not just a pure BPA.  If that were the case we'd have swarms of WRs, QBs, and RBs running about the place.  (Jarvis was a reach)

That said I took a look at our history, when we reached for a pick and when we waited to see what or who fell, and rebuilt a mock sticking to that history.  Pure and simple.  It allowed me (and the Steelers) success in 2010, and according to my cohort, it could very well happen again this time.  So much so that a devout Bears fan said "this is the most realistic draft you have ever made, and if it happens, Ill gladly be a Steeler fan".

Granted this is before the Senior Bowl, EW Shrine and the Combine, but after seeing all the uneducated junk thats out there, I felt once again that the public needed to see something realistic.  Something that COULD happen.  Something that ultimately MIGHT happen.

Intro the jagoff Goodell...

"With the 15th pick in the 2014 NFL draft (that was pushed back because Im a wuss), the Pittsburgh Steelers select..."

15 Louis Nix III, DT Notre Dame- I still have questions re this type of pick as the past 2 years we have been in more of the 2-4-5 Nickel than our base 3-4 formation.  Yes, every 30 front requires a true NT.  Steve isnt it.  Hampton was.  Even Woods or Hood arent it.  Hampton was.  But thru the reading Ive been doing and tape Ive watched I have found that while we typically send the NT to the sideline on "passing downs" we might not have to do that all the time with Nix.  He requires a double team, if he doesnt get one then hes gonna be in the backfield to take the hand off, or at least get the QB on the move.  So why not at least team him with Heyward in the middle of the Nickel???  He has the arm length, and the quick twitch needed to not only hog up lanes and blockers but also press the inside of the pocket.  Lets do the math.  5 OL right?  The base Nickel is essentially a 6 man front.  If 2 of the OL are blocking Nix, that leaves 3 to block Hayward and 4 LBs.  Not to mention any addtl blitzing that may happen.  So at the very least, with NO blitzing, its a 3 on 5 task.  Good luck offense.  Ok, so they go mass protect and keep in their RB and TD.  Now its a 7 on 6.  And now we blitz a CB.  The offense is down to only 3 WRs, while we have 5 DBs to cover and or blitz.  This was a long tale my friends, but the more I write about it, the more I like the pick.

HISTORY- in 2010 we reached 13 spots for Pouncey.  This is an 11 spot reach.

46 Martavis Bryant, WR Clemson- For every Sammy Watkins, theres a Martavis Bryant.  My heart skipped a beat when I saw the Tweet, him entering the Draft.  Tomlin draft a Junior.  Shocking.  Not.  Ben will be thrilled.  Hes 6'4.  Haley will be thrilled.  He's probably gonna clock very low 4.4s.  He didnt just take the top of the defense, be put a hole in the umbrella.  We saw a poor mans version of Bryant make the game winning TD catch in the Natl Championship game.  If not for all the drops and poor route running Id be a Kelvin fan.  But Bryant is the total package.  And ask yourself, "how can Clemson use Sammy on WR screens and drag routes so often???".  Because theres a monster darting down the field with at least a 40 inch jump.  Yes, and Sammy is awesome.  But think of it.  Sanders is gone.  Bye.  Our top 4 WRs are Brown, Bryant, Wheaton and Cotchery.  Brown the true #1, Bryant a true big deep threat, Wheaton a true slot WR, and Cotchery the possession WR.  Ill take it in a heart beat.

HISTORY- in 2010 we reached 24 spots for Worilds.  This is also a 24 spot reach.

93 COMP EJ Gaines, CB Mizzou- Yes, Tomlin, LeBeau and Lake love the bigger CBs, those that can cover the bigger WRs.  Yes, EJ is 5'10.  And yes, Im not a fan of the Lil Shark we drafted last year.  But theres another thing Tomlin and company adore- speed.  And the icing on the cake?  Hands.  EJ isnt just fast.  Hes "what the hell just ran by here???" fast.  He averages 3-4 picks a year.  The way I see it- Cortez will use a full off season as the starter.  Get him locked in for 4-5 years now.  Pay attention Colbert.  Ike redoes his deal, but only stays for 1 more year.  Gay has a 3 yr deal, and actually played ok as the Nickel back.  Where we have problems is after that.  Curtis Brown was a waste of a 3rd round pick.  And after that it only gets worse.  Let Gaines learn as the Nickle or Dime back this year then replace Gay in 2015.  Yes Colbert, Im planning for the future.  You should try it.  And then, as not all top CBs are over 6 foot, see if hes earned the starting nod next to Allen.  If not, maybe take a look at our 4th round pick, or get a stud CB in 2016 as Ive locked up most of the other needs this year.

HISTORY- in 2012 we drafted the grade equal to that of the pick.  IE, 93 picking 93.  That pick was Sean Spence.  Eh.  Ill get to him later.

94 COMP Dee Ford, DE/OLB Auburn- Oh the mess Colbert and Tomlin have made of our cherished outside linebackers.  Once the pedigree of the NFL, now... we could have Jones and Carter starting in 2014.  Hurts dont it?  Ok, so if you saw the Championship game you know who Ford is.  What I love about Auburn as that they really dont play a pure 30 or 40 front, especially when it has to do with their LBs.  (Just writing that makes me think Belicheat is gonna read this and pick him sooner.  Jagoff).  That means while Ford has the size of a "Tweener" he has experience in rushing with a hand down, standing up, and or in coverage (not alot, but some).  This kid is all motor all the time.  He doesnt even wait for the word "go", he hears GUH and hes out.  Looking ahead, due to injuries, do we redo Woodleys expensive overpaid deal?  Trade him? (if we lock in Jason Worilds, then thats what I prefer).  And then can we keep Jason?  Neither is really anti injury, but one is of a lesser hit, both to the sideline and to the wallet.  Behind them?  Jarvis on the other side.  And Chris Carter.  Thats it.  That sucks.  This would give Dee the "standard one year of learning" bullshit line that LeBeau throws out there.  If we happen to lose both Jason and LaMarr... Id be thrilled with Dee Ford on the strong side.  And not to confuse you Colbert- he has spent time STARTING over at LOLB LDE.

HISTORY- in 2012 we drafted the grade equal to that of the pick.  IE, 93 picking 93.  That pick was Sean Spence.  Eh.  Ill get to him later.

111 Terrence Brooks, S/CB Florida State- Ive been a fan all year, yet was confused when Jimbo pressed him into the box so often vs Auburn.  Yes, theyre a run first team, but ye theyre also a big playaction surprise team.  So when you keep your best safety (in my opinion), one that is a converted CB (another favorite trait of Tomlin, position flexibility), why lock him up in the box?  Nevertheless, Brooks is an all around DB, that yes began his time at Florida State as a CB, then moved to Safety.  While he does have the coverage ability to play either, I dont think he has the outright speed to keep up with WRs at the CB spot.  He has height at 6 foot, and the kid can hit.  Tackles correctly too.  Could he flex as a Dime or 5th DB in a Quarter coverage?  I think he could.

HISTORY- in 2013 we drafted a tiny little speedster of a safety and a useless QB with a reach as per CBS Sports of 4 spots.  This Jones is worse than the first Jones we got.  I graded him as a 7-UDFA.  Hopefully we make up for it with Ryan Clarks replacement.  This was also a 4 spot reach at the time the mock with built, 1/6/2014.

143 Andrew Lynch, TE Georgia- Heath is another year old, and another year wiser.  Spaeth actually could be better on his second go around.  David Pauslon.  Ugh.  Is an average WR pretending to be a TE.  If that.  Lynch on the other hand is not quite like Heath but almost as Miller was a dominate pass catcher at Virginia, doing a decent job of blocking.  Andrew on the other hand is a dominant blocker that has baby butt soft hands.  He has decent height, 6'5.  He is built for the position at 255, the same as Miller.  He wont however stretch the field, but will be vital on 3rd and short with a much needed 1st down catch, or a tight seam in the red zone.

HISTORY- in 2012 we drafted Chris Rainey as he fell 34 spots.  Lynch too will probably fall some as hes not the now trendy "pass catching TE".  This was a fall of 32 spots.

168 COMP James Hurst, OT UNC- Finally an offensive linemen.  Ive been a fan of Hursts all season.  I had a mock earlier in the year with him in the 3rd round.  He is a dominate Left Tackle that can play guard.  He is rare because he is far better as pass pro than run blocking.  Then how the hell does he fall to the late 5th round?  Simple.  He broke his leg in the bowl game.  As long as he tests out ok, he is worth a shot this late in the draft, especially since weve locked up other needs.  Im just hoping the break hasnt hindered his kick slide.  The main problem I had with Mike Adams is that his over did his slide so much that he even leaned on his weight in that direction, easily allowing the defender a straight shot to the QB.  We saw that live this year.  As long as the leg heals, we wont have that problem with Hurst.

HISTORY- in 2011 we drafted Chris Carter after falling 85 spots.  Hursts injury has him fall 78.

169 COMP Max Bullough, LB Michigan State-  Oh Max.  Or as I like to call him, "The Lighter James Farrior".  LOL  Yes he was suspended for the Rose Bowl.  And yes we are trying to steer clear of such players.  While we dont know what the suspension was regarding we do know this... Max is a power at ILB.  He owns the position.  The term "defenses QB".  Thats Max.  He reads, he hits, he tackles.  And while I am a big fan of Vince to play permanently alongside Timmons, I do think we need more solid depth.  Did I mention he could play outside as well?  Huh.  But what about Spence???  The jury is still out until he can actually play again.  If ever.  We cant sit on our hands hoping things work out. See what that got us in the CB and OLB positions?

HISTORY- this is shared with the 6th round pick.  yes I said I was gonna stick to the history, pure and simple, this was the only pick that needed to use the numbers from the next pick.  That said, in 2013 we drafted Vince Williams, after he fell 4 spots.

175 Benjamin Gardner, DE Stanford- Off comes Da Beard.  In steps Cameron Heyward.  And?  Ummm, Nick Williams?  Eh.  Arnfelt?  In preseason he was a stud.  So maybe.  Keep Woods.  God I hope so.  Move McLendon to 5 tech?  Ummm.  Resign Ziggy?  As you can see this is an issue but we do have options.  I believe with the loss of Keisel we must at least add competition.  And why not a player with starting time as a 5 tech?  In the Stanford defense?  Yup.  Gardner is used much like Heyward was (finally) this year.  5 tech in the base, and 1 tech or 3 tech in the Nickel.  His upside, like Cams is that hes not only good at stopping the run, hes a threat to the QB as well.

HISTORY- in 2011 we drafted Keith Williams, reaching 21 spots.  That was a mistake.  But like that pick, we reach only 16 spots to get him, and unlike him- he should stick around.

207 Roderick McDowell, RB Clemson-  Do you see why I had us drafting Bell in the 2nd round last year?  And do you see that we have no dpeth behind him?  Enter "Hot Rod" McDowell.  He was made in a zone blocking scheme, and has the speed to exploit the outside/stretch version of that in the NFL.  While Bell can be an every down player, it never hurts to give him a breather.  So why not attack the defense with a speed back while theyre catching their breath over the beating they took from LeVeon?  On top of this, wouldnt it be even better if we could give Brown a rest from Punt returns, and add a true weapon on kick off returns?  See Roderick.  Hes the perfect blend of patience and speed (with a goofed up fumble now and then.  Just being honest), while Bell is patience, patience, more patience and power.

HISTORY- in 2011 we selected Baron Batch, the painter, reaching 176 spots.  With McDowell we reach 193.  Why?  Hes 5'9.

I hope you enjoyed this educational, realistic Pittsburgh Steelers mock draft.  Im hanging onto it until after both the Senior Bowl and the Combine as I feel its a tremendous fit.  Thanks for the time.