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Sunday, April 28, 2013

Bears Draft Analysis, Day 3


Round 4: 117th Overall- Khaseem Greene, LB, Rutgers.

Love the player!  Not a huge fan of the pick.  With only 5 total picks (at the time), I thought drafting 2 LBs out of the first 3 picks was a little overkill, especially after signing 2 free agent LBs this offseason.  The Bears are now pretty deep at LB.  You have DJ Williams, and James Anderson on 1-year deals.  Two drafted rookies.  JT Thomas and Blake Costanzo, core special teamers that have shown flashes when thrown into games.  And there's that Lance Briggs guy.  My two gripes with this pick are that: A) over the last 2 or so weeks, I have come to the conclusion that Greene may be pigeonholed as solely at WLB in a 4-3 defense.  While Briggs is getting older, he's still very capable, certainly for the 2013 season.  So, the Bears have basicallly picked a guy that's going to be redshirted for his entire rookie year.  B) the Bears could have gone with a player that could have contributed some as a rookie.  A CB there could have come in to compete in the nickel and dime packages with Kelvin Hayden.  A WR there could have come in and contributed for time as the #4.  A DT, DE, even RB or QB could have competed for playing time in some form right away.  The Bears say Greene will compete, but I don't see him being able to hold up at SLB, especially when his prinary competition will be a guy drafted 2 rounds ahead of him and an experienced veteran who the coaches raved about in the brief mini-camp.

As for Greene the player, I've become sort of a Rutgers homer over the last few years.  Really fell in love with guys like Ray Rice, Mohamed Sanu, Logan Ryan, and now Greene.  He's a very good straight-line athlete that was a tackling machine at Rutgers.  Made a ton of plays in all facets of defense for the Scarlett Knights.  He had almost 280 tackles over the last 2 years, with 26.5 of those coming in the backfield.  He's an avid blitzer with 9.5 sacks over the last 2 years (6 as a senior).  Also added 2 INTs in the pass coverage this year and fits right in with the Bears scheme with his 15 forced fumbles in his career, which apparently is an NCAA record.  He's wonderful at going for and getting the strip out of a ballcarriers hands, so imagine how good he can be once Charles Tillman gets to him and teaches him the "PEANUT PUNCH". 

On one hand, Greene was likely BPA when the Bears picked at 117.  He'd been graded in the high 50s-to-low 60s by NFL draft scout for most of the season before dropping the last week and a half or so.  But on the other, this was potentially the last chance to get a contributor for the 2013 Bears.  Greene is NFL ready, so he could contribute if given a chance.  But I just think he won't get that opportunity any time soon.  And I question whether they could have waited a year to take what is potentially Briggs' successor.

Round 5: 163rd Overall- Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech.

This is one of the prototypical late round picks.  A dominant small school player who has questions about his ability to produce against more talented players and who is very raw and could really benefit by good NFL coaching.  Mills has good enough size (6'5", 315lbs).  He's average to slightly above athletic ability.  Perfect 34" arms.  Good frame.  Probably never going to be an NFL left tackle, but with good coaching and development, looks like he could be a starting RT down the line.  Really made a name for him self kind of after the senior bowl.  Ezekiel Ansah dominated in the game, but a look at the week's practices showed Mills as one of the guys on his own squad that could block the eventual #5 overall pick. 

I think he's a guy that is probably going to have to be the 4th OT as a rookie (not sure can sneak him on practice squad).  Then he competes to be your 3rd/swing OT in his second year if he shows some improvement in his technique.  Maybe then he gets some time due to injury and you see how he competes.  Year 3, either get a very cheap serviceable starter at RT or a backup with some experience that won't kill you if he has to get in there and play.  Really like the value of this pick.  Potentially could have gone as high as late 3rd, early 4th with the way OL were coming off the board early in this draft. 

Round 6: 188th Overall- Cornelius Washington, DE, Georgia.

Another good value pick.  Easily the best value of the draft for the Bears, and possibly best value overall.  Washington had a late 2nd to 3rd round grade from a lot of people, including the guys at NFL Draft Scout.  He measured in a 6-4, 265lbs at the combine, which isn't ideal 4-3 DE size, but it's pretty clear he has the frame to add weight and was staying at that weight to also draw interest as a 3-4 OLB, which is the position he worked out with at the combine.  At that weight, Washington dazzled in Indianapolis with a blazing 4.55 time in the 40.  He also backed that up by being the strongest LB by far, repping 225lbs a whopping 36 times.  Washington also finished top 3 at his position in the broad and high jump events, showing off his explosion and straight line ability. 

While, he didn't quite excel at the agility events, his power and speed were on display at the Senior Bowl.  Guys like Ansah and the 2 stud LTs got a lot of the publicity, but frankly, I thought Cornelius Washington looked like one of the top 5 players on the field in Mobile to me.  He consistently got edge pressure (lined up at DE with hand on the ground), using a combination of a very quick first step and a powerful bull rush. 

Washington doesn't offer much in terms of run defense as of yet, but I think the Bears can use him right away as a pass rush specialist.  Reminds me a lot of Mark Anderson when the Bears drafted him 6 years ago.  He won't put up 12 sacks like Anderson did as a rookie, but hopefully, he won't also disappear.  If he can come in and win the 4th DE job, I think he can give the Bears 4-6 sacks as a rookie and then the Bears can decide whether to bulk him up to about 275lbs so he can move up the depth chart or keep him as another speed rush option across from Shea McClellin. 

Round 7: 236th Overall- Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington St.  

This is another player that had 2nd or 3rd round aspirations, but fell for much different circumstances.  I'm sure you all know what happened, so won't get into that.  But as for the player himself, the Bears said they wanted to replace Johnny Knox, they may have done it with a bigger, albeit slower, version of him.  Like Knox, Wilson is a very "slender" WR to put it nicely.  He's about 6-3, 190lbs soaking wet.  Not blazing fast, but looks like a sub 4.5 speed guy on the field.  Long strider, so the speed is deceptive and he seems to get up to full speed pretty quickly for a guy his size.  Can eat up a cushion in a hurry.  And has huge big play ability with a career average of nearly 17 yards per catch in college, where he was a 3-year starter until being suspended from the team for the last 3 games.  The biggest concerns with him on the field are that his hands can betray him at times, and he's really raw as a route runner being that he's only 20 years old.  He also doesn't look like he can or will add much to his slight frame, making him questionable against press coverage. 

That suspension is the reason Wilson's stock dropped so far, as NFL teams didn't really know what to think about the guy's heart and love for football in general.  So, if he has his head on right, the Bears could be getting a dynamic WR to stretch the defense to give Brandon Marshall even more room to operate underneath. 

Overall, Day 3 was pretty good.  I think most teams pretty much have a consensus on the top 60-80 prospects, but after the mid-3rd draft boards get a little murky.  I think the Bears picked up 4 guys on Day 3 who conceivably were all top 50-100 on various team boards at some point between the end of October and draft day.  I think a lot of Bears fans may be disappointed in Emery's draft (everyone seems to be bent out of shape about not drafting Ryan Swope for some reason), but people are always going to be upset when a guy keeps his gameplan so close to the vest.  People want to know what's going to happen and talk themselves into disliking anything that happens that they didn't plan for.  And while I would have done some things very differently, Emery stuck with point 5 of my "draft day insight" article and consistently went after the best big athletes of the bunch.  If all 6 of these kids come to play and the new coaching staff can get the most out of them, this will be a very productive draft.

Steelers UDFA reviews...

We only signed 15 when we have room for 16.  I think thats us leaving a spot open intentionally for a vet signing at some point.  Im hoping its the OL from Bama that played for the Texans.  When looking deep into this players I noticed most were doubled up position wise.  

Here are the 3 lone players with no doubles.  

INGRAMBAXTERMCNEAL
LS/HAWAIILB/NO ILLINOISRB/USC
Ingram is the best LS in the draft and its about time we get youth at that spot.  He isnt heavy enough to spell any other positions though.  But hes a long snapper, does it matter?

Baxter is a total position flex freak.  Can and has played DE, OLB and ILB not to mention he brings orange wedges to practice.  LOL  Pay attention Carter.

McNeal is total 3rd down scat back and kick returner.  With the Stephens-Howling deal done Thursday night, ya think Batch has become expendable?  Yup.  Me too.

On to the doubles...


DUNNWOODSEMBERNATEGOLIC JRWADEMADSENFARRELLHUBBARD
WR/UTAHWR/WVUOL/SAN DIEGO STOL/NDOC/BAYLOROC/WVUOT/PSUOL/UAB



RASHAD-WHITEHUNTERARNFELTHAGANS
DT/MICHIGAN STDT/FLORIDADE/NRTHWESTRNDE/LA LAYFAYETTE



Dunn has rumored to run a 4.21 40.  Also a kick punt returner.  Very tiny guy.  Reminds me of... yup, McCluster.

Woods is a body.  Sorry, cant find any big deal about this kid.

Embernate and Golic jr are interior flex OL.  I thing Embernate could make the 53 while Golic jr on the Practice Squad.

Wade and Madsen are OCs that can and have played OG.  Theyre almost mirror images of one another, but Madsen has academic issues.  I give the nod to Wade.

Farrell and Hubbard are OTs that can play OG.  Fingers crossed that Farrell gets it done and is the 9th OL.  I see him as this years Foster.  Plus Hubbard is under 300 pounds.  I dunno why hes here.

Heres the fun ones- Rashad-White and Hunter are true 0/1 techs.  It looks like MT wants short and big as both are only 6'1 315+ with RW the exact same size as Brandon Williams (now a Raven) (Fangupo also 6'1 315+).  I honestly think White bumps Taamu and Hunter or Fangupo take PS.

Last but not least is Arnfelt and Hagans.  Originally I thought they would be de/olbs but further investigation shows them as true 5 tech 34 des.  Theyre built like young Brett Keisels.  Add to that the Samford kid from the 7th round (Mitchell says wont play at all, too raw, so prob PS bound) thats 3 true new 5 techs,  How ya feeling Hood?  Heyward, ye best step it up, cause you have real competition here.

Later.




Saturday, April 27, 2013

STEELERS 2013 DRAFT THEME!!!

I guarantee you wont hear this from any local reporters- every pick (except for Brown, 1 year at OK) thru pick 206 have been or were recently a team captain, or in Bell's case, a co-captain.  This is the type of player we targeted this year due to the loss of veteran leadership in years past.  These are leaders.  These are men.  These are not followers.  These are not drunks or dumbasses that may or may not have hit their gfs.  These players are the next Aaron Smiths, Hines Wards, Jerome Bettis'.

Im waiting for your call Mr. Colbert.  I would love to work as an associate of some sort.


Bears Draft Analysis, Days 1 & 2


Round 1: 22nd Overall:  Kyle Long, OG/OT, Oregon.

Let me start by saying that Kyle Long is a good looking player.  He's a legit 6-6, athletic 303 or so pounds, nice long arms, and plays with quite a mean streak.  I think he can develop into a huge Robert Gallery type LG and potentially become a good right or even left tackle.  He obviously has major NFL bloodlines with a Hall of Fame father and a pro bowl caliber player for a brother.  So, I think the chances of him reaching his ceiling are higher than most players, even in spite of his off-the-field issues he's had in the past.

That being said, this pick reminds me a lot of the Shea McClellin 1st round pick from last year.  McClellin wasn't a horrible pick, I just didn't see the fit.  He was a 3-4 OLB round peg trying to fit in the square hole that is the 4-3 DE position.  Shea showed flashes last year, but still remains to be seen if the Bears got a pass rush specialist or a 3-down player at 19 overall last year.  Unlike McClellin, Long was probably a full round reach.  I didn't do overall grades, but I would have put him right around the Bears pick in the 2nd round (45-55 range).....though, he would not have made it that far based on the OL off the board on Thursday.  Like McClellin, Long was the most athletic white guy at his position.  His 40-time of 4.95 seconds would have been amazing, if it wasn't for 2 guys running 4.7s.  His agility and other movement skills are definitely good enough.  My big concern with him is not so much that he doesn't "fit" the Bears scheme, it's more so HOW and WHEN he will fit.  The Bears signed Jermon Bushrod and Matt Slauson, who most certainly will start at 2 of the 5 OL spots.  Roberto Garza doesn't look like he's going anywhere so, there's your 3rd.  That leaves 3 spots for 3 guys under 25 years old in J'Marcus Webb, Gabe Carimi, and Long.  Carimi is another 1st round pick, so he's not going to just get cast aside.  Webb is actually younger than Carimi and has been a 3-year starter who's improved every year.  So, you're talking about potentially starting the 20th overall pick on the bench as a rookie.  And being that he's already 24-years old, the Bears could have a situation where they are starting a guy, they are highly invested in, for the first time the same season he turns 26 years old in 2014.

Even more upsetting about the reach for Long is the 2 trades that were made sandwiched around #20.  The Niners traded picks #31 and 74 for the 18th pick.  Atlanta traded picks #30, 92 and a 5th rounder for pick 22.  I would have taken any of those trades for the 20th pick, and been very happy with Kyle Long at the end of Thursday, where I think he still would have been available. Also thought guys like Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, and especially Sharrif Floyd were better values at 20 that fit needs for the Bears.

But overall, I'm fine with Kyle Long as a player, and Bears fans have been begging for OL help forever (though strangely now, 3 of the last 4 first round picks they've made have gone to OL).  But frankly, Kyle Long and a 3rd round pick would have been better, maybe that option wasn't out there (SF traded up higher, Atlanta didn't have to worry about moving up for CB until before the Vikings picks).  Not a value pick, but hopefully he gets the most out of the amazing genes he has and the Bears don't have to worry about at least 1 position on the OL for a very long time.

Round 2: 50th Overall: Jonathan Bostic, LB, Florida.

On paper, this is a solid pick....but it could turn out to be better than most Bears fans probably expect.  I will admit, I probably was a little misinformed about Bostic.  I saw a lot of Florida games, and Bostic was the glue guy and leader of the Florida defense.  And per usual with a "glue" guy, the assumption is the guy is a solid player with strong fundamentals and outperforms his athletic ability.  This is what I thought of Bostic to some extent.  Granted, he does look fast on tape, but he's on a defense where you have stud athletes all around him.  Floyd and Easley stood out for their athleticism upfront in that defense.  Elam and the CBs stood out for their athleticism in the defensive backfield.  And even Jelani Jenkins at OLB looked like a better athlete than Bostic on gamedays.  But a closer look at the numbers reveal that Bostic is plenty athletic, and actually one of the best athletes at LB this draft had to offer.

Bostic ran a 4.61 40-yard dash, good enough to be the 3rd fastest LB in the entire draft class.  That number is good enough for the top 5 in any LB class in any of the last 5 years.  Bostic's agility drills were just as impressive, finishing top 4 in both the 20-yard shuttle and the 3-cone drills.  He was also top 10 at the combine in the bench press and broad jump, despite being one of the smaller/shorter guys in the group.

Now an important name did NOT perform at the combine: Arthur Brown.  And a quick internet message board search shows a bunch of Bears fans that are up in arms that the Bears took Bostic over Brown.  In fact, I am a huge Arthur Brown fan myself, including being willing to take him at 20 at one point this offseason if that's what it took to get him in a Bears uniform.  And the fact that the Ravens almost immediately traded up to take him after he got past the Bears is a little concerning, considering that Ozzie Newsome can do no wrong.  But the tale-of-the-tape reveals just maybe the Bears made the right choice here. 

Bostic's combine results:
Height- 6'1".  Weight- 245lbs
40 yard dash - 4.61
Bench - 22 reps
Vertical - 32.5
3 cone - 6.99
20 yard shuttle - 4.24

Arthur Brown pro day:
Height- 6'1".  Weight- 241lbs.
40 yard dash - 4.67
Bench - 21 reps
Vertical - 32.5
3 cone - 7.07
20 yard shuttle - 4.31

Bostic outperformed Brown in every event other than a tie in vertical jump.  Throw in the fact that Bostic measured 100% true to his listed weight during the 2012 season, and Brown added 13lbs from his listed weight that he may not be able to maintain, the Bears likely felt that Bostic was a better fit inside at MLB than Brown.  And honestly, who can blame them.  Bostic also has a better history of being willing to take on blockers, with those blockers being in the SEC.

I think Bostic can come in and be a Day 1 starter, as I think he's better than James Anderson right now.  I think he could play either SAM or MIKE LB, with DJ Williams at the other.  Right now, I'd say he's the MLB due to Williams having an edge in covering TEs.  I would like to see him display better hips.  The agility tests are at an elite level, but I frankly didn't see that on tape.  I didn't quite see the ability to open up his hips, turn, and run....especially in pass coverage (though he didn't play a ton of man coverage from what I saw).  More of a downhill player right now, but I think he has the ability to cover a lot of ground in the zone.  Not Urlacher ground, but definitely enough to be a good fit in the Bears scheme.

Sorry for being long-winded.  Also, you can follow me on Twitter @action4life to be the first to know when the blog has been updated with Bears/draft information!

Friday, April 26, 2013

So it turns out we did draft Jarvis Jones...

To be honest I was prepared for this and had built a mock,... just in case.

17 Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia- a beast on tape vs SEC competition and a snail in the Combine and his Pro Day.  Hmmm

48 LeVeon Bell, RB Michigan State- While there is recent news that Franklin has our eye, I happen to think this news, along with inviting both he and Lacy, were on purpose.  There are some that have said Bell is indeed the best all around back in the draft.  Some say its Franklin.  And some Lacy.  What better way to allow Bell to be there at 48 than to show other teams were interested in the other RBs.  Let them take Franklin and Lacy, only to have Bell come right to our doorstep.  Side note- Id be fine with any of these RBs (Franklin, Ball, Bell, Gillislee, maybe even Michael) but Bell is at the top of my list.  And if you look further, hes a junior.  And Tomlin loves juniors.  He feels younger players are more open to being coached.  Bell has soared up the draft boards, and had dinner with MT and Colbert.  In my opinion Bell looks and plays a lot like Steven Jackson.  As a matter of fact, Jax also said Bell reminds him of himself.  While he doesnt have scary 4.4 speed, he does have the patience to find the best hole, and then deliver a brutal stiff arm to give himself separation.  He has experience in the inside and outside zone blocking scheme, and while the stretch play might be more difficult for him to pull off in the NFL, a counter or misdirection could give him plenty of room to break away.  And thats not to mention his threat in the passing game.

79 Stedmon Bailey, WR WVU- Yes we invited mid to late rounders with speed in Boyce, King and Brown, but with Wallace gone and Sanders to probably follow we need to act sooner to fill the WR spot. Why Bailey?  He happens to have similar YPC to Patterson, but is a 3 year starter, and runs superb routes (everything Patterson is not).  He is similar in size to the "Young Money Family", and is about the same speed as Sanders, and like Sanders he can play in the slot or outside.  He is very physical at the LOS, and can get off the snap with damn near anyone in his face.  To put more fuel to the fire he worked out with Mr. Richard Mann to get ready for the Combine.  Recognize the name?  Hes our new WR Coach and has raved about Bailey from day 1.  I also did some math recently on the number of players we draft that were also brought in for a workout.  We average 3-4 per year.  While the number of visitors sits only at 24/30, my other mocks had far too many visitors being drafted by us.  So I tweaked it, but kept with the history of MTs most successful drafts, 2010, 2011 and 2012 (maybe).  Bailey falls right into place here.

115 Josh Evans, FS Florida- OK, yes, Im a Gator fan.  But so is Tomlin.  While Elam was more of a Polamalu type safety, Evans is more like Clark, but faster.  Can can play either safety spot as well as nickel when needed.  He has also covered the TE or Slot while Elam had the top of the umbrella.  Depending on the scheme, play, and down/distance, Evans played solid at safety wherever needed.

150 B.W. Webb, CB William and Mary- Here is my only player falling.  Why? Height and lack of competition.  Or so I hope.  The more I read and watch this kid, the more I like him.  He is a total ball hawk that will knock the bejesus outta you if given the chance in run support.  Plus, hes from MTs  Alma Mater.  Weve invited a few mid round CBs all with 2 things in common- speed and hands.  Webb grabbed the attention of scouts and coaches with his play at the Senior Bowl.  While he doesnt have the height Id prefer at CB, he does happen to be the same size as a certain former MT draftee... Ugh, William Gay.  Webb usually plays the LCB spot, but has also played nickel as well as returned punts.  And what makes his 5'10 height ok?- a 40 inch vertical.  Go ahead, put it up.  This kid will give everything he has to go get it, or at least knock it down.  He can give Brown some competition at the dime spot, while actually getting playing time on special teams as a punt returner.

186 Michael Mauti, LB PSU- Its about time we drafted a LB from Penn State.  Oh, this one has had 3 ACL tears?  3 ya say?  Not 2?  No.  3.  Shit.  The way I understand it is that weve been involved with the kid for a long long time, and will give him every chance to start out on special teams and maybe fill in for the other seriously injured ILB Spence at some point.  Ive also read that his football smarts are extremely high, and he has a big love for the game.  Its the 6th round, so what the hell.  Why not?  I did move him up 1 pick from my former mocks, more so to meet the history trends of MTs prior mocks.  I have also read that if not for the ACL tears, he coulda been a top 60 pick.

206 Ryan Griffin, QB Tulane- Ive written about him before.  He is known for his accuracy, though against iffy competition.  Were not looking for the next Big Ben, but competition for the 2nd and 3rd QB spot is fine.  And damn near anything besides Leftwich is a step up.

223 Nik Embernate, OL San Diego State- We might have struck gold with the Beachum pick here last year.  Could we do it again?  While Nik (easier to type than his last name) isnt as position flexible, he does have something in common with a former Steeler.  Kemoeatu.  Niks nickname is EmberNASTY.  His coaches yanked him from his starting spot after being thrown out of a game in his freshman year.  He simply enjoys hitting people.  And in a zone blocking scheme both in college and now here, that isnt a "bad" thing, as long as its under control.  He hasnt had any issues of the sort since that one episode, saying that it really woke me up".  Like Destro he is very familiar (and enjoys) trapping to the left from the RG spot.  While I thought finding a OL that had spent time as a OT would be the best, this mock just didnt turn out that way.  I do have 2 UDFAs that could help with that matter though.  In the meantime, Nik can probably be worked out at OC at some point, as well as LG.










Wednesday, April 24, 2013

With the 17th pick in the 2013 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select...

!!!TRADE!!!TRADE!!!TRADE!!!

The Pittsburgh Steelers have traded their 17th overall pick to the Minnesota Vikings for their 23rd and 25th overall picks.

Im sorry, but I cant justify Jones, Vaccaro or Eifert at 17.  Jones will probably be a Saint, as well as he is clearly a 1 trick pony.  And a potentially ill and slow one at that.  Vaccaro will probably follow in the footsteps of Mark Barron and also go top 15.  And while Miller is 31 and now injured, TE is not as pressing of a need, especially at 17.  Side note- If Rhodes is somehow, someway on the board, HE IS THE PICK.  Tomlin must still be pissed we missed out on Revis, and I bet you he wont let that happen again. But alas, Rhodes is considered by most the 2nd best CB.  And if you believe all the shit falling on Milliner, Rhodes could be the 1st CB taken.  Either way, hes long gone by 17.

Yes, Ive been paving the way for Elam at 17, but even that might just be a tad too high.  But even more important is the fact that weve lost over a half dozen players, many of them former starters, and if you add in the backups, we have far more than 8 holes.

Up until last night I was really leaning on Atlanta to be our best trade partner, but then I starting thinking like my co-blogger.  Where is the history between the teams?  With Atlanta?  None.  49ers?  Nope.  Minnesota?  Ummm, yup.  Tomlin was their former DC before becoming our HC.  And I bet, if Teo (will be), Patterson (probably will be), Austin (flip a coin) or even Tank Carradine (perhaps) are their at 17, we're trading with the Vikings.  We need the picks.  And Colbert said himself "there are 6-8 players worthy of our 1st pick" as well as "rounds 2-4 are very very deep".  So lets get 2 of them.  Maybe even 3.

One more note before I continue- Ive been making a mistake the last 4 drafts, thinking that Tomlin has never drafted 2 players from the same school in the same draft.  Maybe it was my MS, or maybe just my Black N Gold blood not allowing me to remember the 2008 "draft", but sure as shit we did draft Sweed and Hills, both Longhorns.  Remember that when you go thru this final mock.  Yes, its my final mock.  I will not be posting the one I built with Jarvis at 17, nor the ones with Cooper (I wish) or Elam (still wishing) at 17.  This my friends, is the way it will go.  So it is said, so it shall be done.  Or some movie line I cant quite recall.

That said, lets get to business...

23 (from MN) Matt Elam, Safety Florida- Ive written about Elam as the perfect fit for our defense as well as our 1st pick many many times.  Ed Bouchette had an article the other day that further backed my belief.  Ed wrote that unlike most other teams, they dont do a full NFL mock.  The do a Steelers mock, at every pick, allowing them and Mr. Rooney to omit players that either do not fit our team or that have off field issues that Dan doesnt wanna have.  Ok, except for Rainey.  And Ta'Amu.  And Adams.  Ugh.  Either way, this shows that while other teams may have Vacarro as the best safety in the draft, MT and Colbert very well could have Elam at that spot.  And Im betting they do.  Add to that Mike Mayock released his top 100 with Elam 25 overall.

25 (from MN) Arthur Brown, LB Kansas State- The Steelers attended his pro day in mass, and like the other 31 teams, drooled at the sight.  These 1st 2 picks could go either way, but keeping in the history of us drafting a junior, Elam, first.  Nevertheless, the only way Brown makes it to us now at 25 is if the Bears are in the john when picking at 20.  I do have to say this- he was invited to the Senior Bowl, but due to a minor injury he could not attend.  Actually, he couldnt play.  He still attended.  He wanted to show the coaches and scouts that just like in the game, if hes injured, DONT WRITE HIM OFF.  He still wanted to work out and meet with the coaches.  He didnt want to disappear due to some injury.  He wanted to make sure he was known.  I liked that ALOT.  Much like Timmons Brown can flex inside and out, while in his case ILB might be his more comfortable position but most teams see him flexing to OLB with ease.  We have 1-2 years to see where he fits best, as Harrison (and Worilds) replacement at ROLB, or as Farrior (and Foote and Spences) replacement inside.  Either way, we cant lose.  He is the same size as Harrison with Timmons speed.  He wraps up tackles and has the patience to allow the play to unfold before striking.  I can only imagine Elam and Brown starting out on Special Teams, as well as certain packages to get their feet wet.  Yup, drooling.

48 LeVeon Bell, RB Michigan State- While there is recent news that Franklin has our eye, I happen to think this news, along with inviting both he and Lacy, were on purpose.  There are some that have said Bell is indeed the best all around back in the draft.  Some say its Franklin.  And some Lacy.  What better way to allow Bell to be there at 48 than to show other teams were interested in the other RBs.  Let them take Franklin and Lacy, only to have Bell come right to our doorstep.  Side note- Id be fine with any of these RBs (Franklin, Ball, Bell, Gillislee, maybe even Michael) but Bell is at the top of my list.  And if you look further, hes a junior.  And Tomlin loves juniors.  He feels younger players are more open to being coached.  Bell has soared up the draft boards, and had dinner with MT and Colbert.  In my opinion Bell looks and plays a lot like Steven Jackson.  As a matter of fact, Jax also said Bell reminds him of himself.  While he doesnt have scary 4.4 speed, he does have the patience to find the best hole, and then deliver a brutal stiff arm to give himself separation.  He has experience in the inside and outside zone blocking scheme, and while the stretch play might be more difficult for him to pull off in the NFL, a counter or misdirection could give him plenty of room to break away.  And thats not to mention his threat in the passing game.

79 Stedmon Bailey, WR WVU- Yes we invited mid to late rounders with speed in Boyce, King and Brown, but with Wallace gone and Sanders to probably follow we need to act sooner to fill the WR spot. Why Bailey?  He happens to have similar YPC to Patterson, but is a 3 year starter, and runs superb routes (everything Patterson is not).  He is similar in size to the "Young Money Family", and is about the same speed as Sanders, and like Sanders he can play in the slot or outside.  He is very physical at the LOS, and can get off the snap with damn near anyone in his face.  To put more fuel to the fire he worked out with Mr. Richard Mann to get ready for the Combine.  Recognize the name?  Hes our new WR Coach and has raved about Bailey from day 1.  I also did some math recently on the number of players we draft that were also brought in for a workout.  We average 3-4 per year.  While the number of visitors sits only at 24/30, my other mocks had far too many visitors being drafted by us.  So I tweaked it, but kept with the history of MTs most successful drafts, 2010, 2011 and 2012 (maybe).  Bailey falls right into place here.

115 Dion Sims, TE Michigan State- Remember when I said I was wrong with the 2 players 1 draft thing?  MT and Colbert took Bell and Sims to dinner before the MI State pro day.  Sims is very much like Miller in that he is a terrific in line blocker, but is also a threat in short/intermediate routes.  While Miller is left behind when the "best TEs" are ranked, he led our team in receptions last year and if given the chance Sims could be a nice filler to take over for Heath in a year or 2.  While we wont flex him out to the slot too often, Haley can easily do that with Paulson and keep Sims in to block, or even chip block, then being the surprise target underneath.

150 B.W. Webb, CB William and Mary- Here is my only player falling.  Why? Height and lack of competition.  Or so I hope.  The more I read and watch this kid, the more I like him.  He is a total ball hawk that will knock the bejesus outta you if given the chance in run support.  Plus, hes from MTs  Alma Mater.  Weve invited a few mid round CBs all with 2 things in common- speed and hands.  Webb grabbed the attention of scouts and coaches with his play at the Senior Bowl.  While he doesnt have the height Id prefer at CB, he does happen to be the same size as a certain former MT draftee... Ugh, William Gay.  Webb usually plays the LCB spot, but has also played nickel as well as returned punts.  And what makes his 5'10 height ok?- a 40 inch vertical.  Go ahead, put it up.  This kid will give everything he has to go get it, or at least knock it down.  He can give Brown some competition at the dime spot, while actually getting playing time on special teams as a punt returner.

186 Michael Mauti, LB PSU- Its about time we drafted a LB from Penn State.  Oh, this one has had 3 ACL tears?  3 ya say?  Not 2?  No.  3.  Shit.  The way I understand it is that weve been involved with the kid for a long long time, and will give him every chance to start out on special teams and maybe fill in for the other seriously injured ILB Spence at some point.  Ive also read that his football smarts are extremely high, and he has a big love for the game.  Its the 6th round, so what the hell.  Why not?  I did move him up 1 pick from my former mocks, more so to meet the history trends of MTs prior mocks.  I have also read that if not for the ACL tears, he coulda been a top 60 pick.

206 Ryan Griffin, QB Tulane- Ive written about him before.  He is known for his accuracy, though against iffy competition.  Were not looking for the next Big Ben, but competition for the 2nd and 3rd QB spot is fine.  And damn near anything besides Leftwich is a step up.

223 Nik Embernate, OL San Diego State- We might have struck gold with the Beachum pick here last year.  Could we do it again?  While Nik (easier to type than his last name) isnt as position flexible, he does have something in common with a former Steeler.  Kemoeatu.  Niks nickname is EmberNASTY.  His coaches yanked him from his starting spot after being thrown out of a game in his freshman year.  He simply enjoys hitting people.  And in a zone blocking scheme both in college and now here, that isnt a "bad" thing, as long as its under control.  He hasnt had any issues of the sort since that one episode, saying that it really woke me up".  Like Destro he is very familiar (and enjoys) trapping to the left from the RG spot.  While I thought finding a OL that had spent time as a OT would be the best, this mock just didnt turn out that way.  I do have 2 UDFAs that could help with that matter though.  In the meantime, Nik can probably be worked out at OC at some point, as well as LG.


Based on our losses as well our very limited gains in Free Agency we can actually add up to 17-19 UDFAs.  Here are my top 10 favorites.

Xavier Brewer, DB Clemson- played CB and can flex to both safety spots.
Byron Jerideau, DT South Carolina or Darius Smith, DT Miami- either could be a practice squad NT and learn to flex to the 5 tech.  Both happen to be the same size as the DT Tomlin loves, Brandon Williams.  Plus, we gotta have someone ready when TaAmu gets busted again.
Jonathan Meeks, S Clemson- more of a pure safety that can play either spot.  We did lose 2 safeties to free agency, but Golden may have earned 1 of the backup spots with Elam at the other.  A solid PS I bet.  He was brought in for a visit.
Marvin Burdette, LB UAB- we worked him out at his pro day, and while hes probably not taller than, umm, ME, he is a lot like the Mauti pick in that he is all football all the time.  A solid wrap up tackler who feels he should make every tackle on the field.  Are you paying attention Sylvester?
Ryan Turnley, OL Pitt- heres the local kid.  He has and can play almost all of the positions on the oline, he is easily a solid replacement for Bruno but takes it a step further.  In addition to OC and OG, he has the size to play RT if needed.
Mike Farrell, OT PSU or RJ Dill, OT Rutgers- either can flex both OT spots as well as RG.
Curtis McNeal, RB USC- here is Raineys replacement.  While Id love to draft McCalebb from Auburn we cant afford to pick 2 RBs in the draft.  Here is another fast, scat back who is also a kick returner.
Justin Brown, WR Oklahoma- I had him as our 7th round pick for a long time but trading with the Vikes only gets us 1 extra pick.  Heres hoping he falls thru and we grab him.  He is the tall, bigger WR that Ben has been wanting for awhile now.  He was also invited for a work out.

Monday, April 22, 2013

2013 NFL Draft Positional Rankings (Defense)

Now onto the defensive side of the ball.

-Edge Rushers (4-3 DE/3-4 OLB)-
1. Jarvis Jones, Georgia
2. Barkevious Mingo, LSU
3. Dion Jordan, Oregon
4. Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
5. Bjoern Werner, Florida State
6. Datone Jones, UCLA
7. Alex Okafor, Texas
8. Cornelius Carradine, Florida State
9. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
10. Jamie Collins, Southern Miss
11. Corey Lemonier, Auburn
12. Sam Montgomery, LSU
13. Margus Hunt, SMU
14. Devin Taylor, South Carolina
15. Brandon Jenkins, Florida State
16. John Simon, Ohio State
17. William Gholston, Michigan St.
18. Quanterus Smith, Western Kentucky
19. Malliciah Goodman, Clemson
20. Chase Thomas, Stanford

Jones is still #1 despite the 40.  Most productive career of this group.  One of the most highly recruited of this group.  He's a good football player, athleticism or not.  Back is a non-issue.  Mingo had great Soph. tape, showed flashes as a Jr.  He's over Jordan because he actually did rush the passer primarily (and did it well) in college.  Jordan and Ansah are this high for athletic ability.  Wouldn't be surprised if both are busts.  I probably wouldn't take either if I'm picking in the top 8.  Okafor is very underrated.  Consistent player without elite athleticism, but experienced and a savvy pass rusher.  Numbers 10, 11, 14, 15, 18 and 19 may all have their best football ahead of them.  Smith, in particular, was leading the nation in sacks before tearing his ACL...including doing a huge number on Bama's DJ Fluker.  Potential steal if his knee checks out.

-Interior DL (4-3 DT, 3-4 DE, 3-4 NT)-
1. Star Lotulelei, Utah
2. Sharrif Floyd, Florida
3. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
4. Kawaan Short, Purdue
5. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
6. Bennie Logan, LSU
7. Jesse Williams, Alabama
8. Jonathan Hankins, Ohio State
9. Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State
10. John Jenkins, Georgia
11. Jordan Hill, Penn State
12. Akeem Spence, Illinois
13. Montori Hughes, Tennessee-Martin
14. Everett Dawkins, Florida State
15. Kwame Geathers, Georgia

Floyd has shot up draft boards.  Richardson probably was the most productive/unblockable player of this group, but Lotulelei is still a freak.  Star's size, strength, athleticism combo is elite.  Hard not to think of Hloti Ngata watching him play.  Short is underrated.  Looked like he had some conditioning issues, but he'll wreak havoc in the opponents backfield for 30 plays a game.  Logan from LSU has his best football ahead of him.  Like him about as much as I liked his teammate Michael Brockers last year.  Probably even more productive in college.  Brandon Williams is somewhat of a sleeper who also has a great size/speed/strength combination.  Hughes is also extremely talented, but has to get his head on straight. 

-Linebackers (All 4-3 LBs, 3-4 ILBs)-
1. Alec Ogletree, Georgia
2. Arthur Brown, Kansas State
3. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
4. Khaseem Greene, Rutgers
5. Kevin Minter, LSU
6. Jon Bostic, Florida
7. Sio Moore, UConn
8. Zaviar Gooden, Missouri
9. Kevin Reddick, North Carolina
10. Kiko Alonzo, Oregon
11. DeVonte Holloman, South Carolina
12. Sean Porter, Texas A&M
13. Trevardo Williams, UConn
14. Jelani Jenkins, Florida
15. Vince Williams, Florida State

The popular thing to do is to question Ogletree's instincts, but you don't make 109 tackles in 9 games and not know what's going on.  Granted, he's no Ray Lewis out there, but he's possibly the best specimen at the LB position since LaVar Arrington came out.  I think he can be coached up.  Start him out at SLB, eventually move him to the middle, get a star if he stays out of trouble.  It's also popular to talk bad about Manti Te'o.  Part of the reason he looks so bad right now is because people for some reason called him a top 10 pick at one point.  That was a mistake, and he's back now where he should be a late 1 to mid-2 pick.  Has all the instincts in the world.  Really like players 6-8, Moore is very versatile.  Looks like a 4-3 SLB who can really blitz and rush the passer on 3rd down.  Gooden is extremely athletic.  Kind of like Zach Brown who had a strong rookie year for Tennessee last year.  Can probably cover any TE in the league.  Jenkins would be higher if he could stay healthy.

- Cornerbacks-
1. Dee Milliner, Alabama
2. Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
3. Desmond Trufant, Washington
4. Jamar Taylor, Boise State
5. David Amerson, North Carolina State
6. DJ Hayden, Houston
7. Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
8. Jordan Poyer, Oregon State
9. Tyrann Mathieu, LSU
10. Logan Ryan, Rutgers
11. Robert Alford, Southeastern Louisiana
12. Dwayne Gratz, UConn
13. Darius Slay, Mississippi State
14. Brandon McGee, Miami
15. Terry Hawthorne, Illinois
16. Leon McFadden, San Diego State
17. Blidi Wreh-Wilson, UConn
18. Steve Williams, California
19. B.W. Webb, William & Mary
20. Sanders Commings, Georgia

I'm very particular about my CBs.  I don't know why anyone spends a top 15 pick on one unless you know for a fact they are going to be a stud....talking Deion Sanders, Patrick Peterson type.  There's no such player in this class.  Rhodes is a close 2 for me.  Milliner's ball skills are iffy, but he shutdown everyone he played.  Interested to see how he does without 7 all americans surrounding him on every play.   4-6 are guys I would take between 25-40 and probably get as much production as the top 3.  Amerson had some ugly games this year, but he's a big CB who intercepted 10 passes as a Soph.  Play him in some off man or zone, and I like his ability to make plays on the ball.  Not as big as most on Wreh Wilson.  Steve Williams is my big sleeper of the group.  Blazing speed, good enough size.

-Safeties-
1. Eric Reid, LSU
2. Matt Elam, Florida
3. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
4. Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
5. Shamarco Thomas, Syracuse
6. JJ Wilcox, Georgia Southern
7. TJ McDonald, USC
8. Baccari Rambo, Georgia
9. DJ Swearinger, South Carolina
10. Philip Thomas, Fresno State
11. Shawn Williams, Georgia
12. Duke Williams, Nevada
13. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma
14. Josh Evans, Florida
15. Earl Wolff, North Carolina State

Great class.  There's no way 15 safeties go on the first 2 days, but I think all these guys are worth top 90 picks.  Not a big fan of Vaccaro, though I see the versatility and why teams/scouts like him.  His slow 40 is a concern that I've always had and I don't know that he's "great" at any area (tackling, man, deep middle/half zone) other than blitzing.  Reid had great Soph tape.  Looked like he was trying to make splash plays too much last year (big hit or INT).  But can't teach 6'2" with that speed/range.  Good coach makes him a star.  My co-writer is a big fan of Elam, and I agree.  If he was a little bigger, he'd be my #1.  Swearinger, Shawn Williams, Evans and Wolff look like solid/reliable players.  Rambo, Duke, the Thomases and Jefferson all have big upside or bust potential. 

2013 NFL Draft Positional Rankings (Offense)

These are my personal rankings by position.  Will start with the offensive side of the ball.  Defense to follow.

-QB-
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia.
2. Matt Barkley, USC
3. EJ Manuel, Florida State
4. Tyler Bray, Tennessee
5. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
6. Mike Glennon, North Carolina State
7. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
8. Matt Scott, Arizona
9. Zac Dysert, Miami (OH)
10. Sean Renfree, Duke
11. Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah
12. Landry Jones, Oklahoma
13. Ryan Griffin, Tulane
14. Matt Brown, Illinois State
15. Colby Cameron, Louisiana Tech

Four games into the college season, Geno Smith was my #1 pick and Heisman winner.  Much is made about his 2nd half struggle, but that "struggle" was still 18:6 TD to INT ratio.  Still had 5 of 7 games over 65% completion, a pair of 350 yard games, and still put up over 30 points 5 times.  I think he's still a top 10 caliber pick.  Bray has the most arm talent in this draft.  Needs a good QB coach.  Like him better than Glennon for the big QBs.  Wilson, I still like for his JR tape.  Arkansas was a disaster this past season and he's still the guy that looked like a top 5 pick going into the 2012 season.  Not a fan of Landry Jones.  Statuesque QBs with mediocre arms don't last long in the NFL.  Never really saw it with Jones, especially when he gets pressure anywhere near him. 

-RB-
1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama
2. Giovanni Bernard, North Carolina
3. Jonathan Franklin, UCLA
4. Andre Ellington, Clemson
5. Le'Veon Bell, Michigan State
6. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
7. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State
8. Mike Gillislee, Florida
9. Montee Ball, Wisconsin
10. Christine Michael, Texas A&M
11. Kenjon Barner, Oregon
12. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford
13. Kerwynn Williams, Utah St
14. Michael Ford, LSU
15. Jawan Jamison, Rutgers
16. Latavius Murray, Central Florida
17. Ray Graham, Pittsburgh
18. Knile Davis, Arkansas
19. Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt
20. Theo Riddick, Notre Dame

Not a fan of Montee Ball.  Too much wear and tear.  Doesn't appear big enough, fast enough, shifty enough to do in the NFL anywhere near what he did in Madison.  Same can be said for Stepfan Taylor.  Franklin could be the best RB of this group.  Really like his all-around game  If Lattimore is close to what he was coming out of HS, he's easily the best in this group, but I doubt that will happen.

-WR-
1. Justin Hunter, Tennessee
2. Tavon Austin, West Virginia
3. DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
4. Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee
5. Robert Woods, USC
6. Keenan Allen, California
7. Markus Wheaton, Oregon State
8. Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech
9. Terrance Williams, Baylor
10. Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech
11. Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
12. Stedman Bailey, West Virginia
13. Ryan Swope, Texas A&M
14. Marquise Goodwin, Texas
15. Aaron Dobson, Marshall
16. Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
17. Chris Harper, Kansas State
18. Aaron Mellette, Elon
19. Josh Boyce, TCU
20. Marquess Wilson, Washington State

Hunter was my #1 all offseason.   Only reason he's not a consensus #1 is because of the ACL tear, but his explosiveness really came back the 2nd half of last year with 6 plays over 50 yards.  He's an AJ Green/Sidney Rice (with Favre throwing him the ball) type of talent.  Austin takes #2 simply because he's amazing.  I see NFL OCs able to use his speed and open field ability more than a few years ago.  Too dynamic to slight for his size.  Lots of talent in this group.  Stills, Bailey and Swope have flat out produced at big time programs.  Hopkins, Wheaton and Woods are Day 1 NFL ready WRs.  Not a huge fan of Keenan Allen, bad 40 confirmed my concerns with him.  Looks the part, but doesn't have the big time talent of the guys ahead of him. 

-TE/FB-
1. Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
2. Zach Ertz, Stanford
3. Gavin Escobar, San Diego State
4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
5. Vance McDonald, Rice
6. Jordan Reed, Florida
7. Dion Sims, Michigan State
8. Nick Kasa, Colorado
9. Lonnie Pryor, Florida State
10. Chris Gragg, Arkansas

Eifert frankly passed Ertz for me at the combine.  Better athlete, better blocker.  Clear #1.  Players 3-6 can all really get open and all can run after the catch.  Best TE class in a long time, IMO.  Kasa has great upside as a former DE.  

-OT-
1. Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2. Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
3. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
4. Justin Pugh, Syracuse
5. DJ Fluker, Alabama
6. Kyle Long, Oregon
7. Terron Armstead, Arkansas Pine Bluff
8. Menelik Watson, Florida State
9. Jordan Mills, Louisiana Tech
10. Reid Fragel, Ohio State
11. Brennan Williams, North Carolina
12. Garrett Gilkey, Chadron State
13. Xavier Nixon, Florida
14. Vinston Painter, Virginia Tech
15. Chris Faulk, LSU

Pugh and Long are OGs for a lot of people, but I think you have to start them at OT.  Pugh has T-Rex arms, but is just a football player.  As Mayock would say, "let him prove he's not a tackle before you write him off as a guard".  Long is the opposite.  He's long and athletic.  He needs some work, but he has football in his blood, and I think he has the ability to protect the edge with his athletic ability and nastiness.  The players ranked 7-10 all have big upside.  All have little big time experience at tackle, but are among the top athletes at their position.  

-Interior OL (OC/OG)-
1. Chance Warmack, Alabama
2. Johnathan Cooper, North Carolina
3. Larry Warford, Kentucky
4. Travis Frederick, Wisconsin
5. Brian Schwenke, California
6. Barrett Jones, Alabama
7. Alvin Bailey, Arkansas
8. Brian Winters, Kent State
9. Dallas Thomas, Tennessee
10. Hugh Thornton, Illinois
11. David Bakthari, Colorado
12. Khalid Holmes, USC
13. David Quessenberry, San Jose State
14. Earl Watford, James Madison
15. Eric Herman, Ohio

Another strong group.  Warford is one of my favorite players in this draft.  If he moved better in space, he'd be ahead of Warmack.  But he doesn't let anything thru him though.  Holds his ground well, forces defenders around him in pass protection.  Frederick and Bailey are guys that had huge seasons in 2011.  Frederick looked like a 1st rounder at LG before moving to C in 2012.  Bailey was the best lineman on a big-time offense before the team fell apart this past season.  Both could be steals.  8-10 could play OT, but not going to do it well.  Best suited inside.  Watch out for all the small school guys. 

Saturday, April 20, 2013

The Steelers pick 17th in 2 days... (updated)

Ive been adamant that the Steelers will certainly be looking to move down in the draft, accumulating more picks.  We have more holes than our 8 picks will fill (that wasnt supposed to be so dirty).  Either way, with or without the average 2 UDFAs making the 53, we still need more help.  If for no other reason then to add much needed competition.  Ya hear me Ta'Amu?  Sylvester?  Curtis Brown?  Worilds?  Carter?

I do also want to take a moment to mention that OLB is NOT, I repeat IS NOT our most important need.  Weve drafted a 2nd rounder and a 5th rounder that now have the chance to prove their worth.  However, that doesnt mean we shouldnt bring in more competition.  In addition, weve lost both of our backup safeties, while our starters are well over 30, and 1 averages playing in barely 12 games a year.  And our RBs were called out by Colbert to "not be as good as we expected or thought".  While everyone wants Lacy at 17, its far too soon, and hes looking like he might be a bit of a risk.  Moving on...

I had been working on a trade with the Vikings.  Theyre not hiding the fact that with either their 23rd or 25th pick, theyre targeting Teo.  The problem is, the Giants look to want him also and pick ahead of the Vikes.  They could trade with us to jump ahead of the Giants, nabbing Teo.  However, the Falcons recently made it known that they WANT to move up.  Rumors have it its either for a CB or for the WVU WR Austin.  So I built the following mock trading our 17th pick for the Falcons 30th, as well as their 92nd, 163rd and 236th.

This mock had Brandon Williams, the NT from Missouri Southern State until the recent extension given to McLendon.  While I prefer Williams to either Steve or Ta'Amu, I am trying to be realistic.  Ok, maybe not realistic, but at the very least having my decisions here be as close to happening as possible.  So Ive redone this mock, still keeping with Tomlin and Colberts history.

17 (30 ATL) Matt Elam, Safety Florida- Ive written about Elam as the perfect fit for our defense as well as our 1st pick many many times.  Ed Bouchette had an article today that further backed my belief.  Ed wrote that unlike most other teams, they dont do a full NFL mock.  The do a Steelers mock, at every pick, allowing them and Mr. Rooney to omit players that either do not fit our team or that have off field issues that Dan doesnt wanna have.  Ok, except for Rainey.  And Ta'Amu.  And Adams.  Ugh.  Either way, this shows that while other teams may have Vacarro as the best safety in the draft, MT and Colbert very well could have Elam at that spot.  And Im betting they do.  Add to that Mike Mayock released his top 100 with Elam 25 overall.

48 LeVeon Bell, RB Michigan State- Tomlin loves juniors.  He feels younger players are more open to being coached.  Bell has soared up the draft boards, and had dinner with MT and Colbert.  In my opinion Bell looks and plays a lot like Steven Jackson.  While he doesnt have scary 4.4 speed, he does have the patience to find the best hole, and then deliver a brutal stiff arm to give himself separation.  He has experience in the inside and outside zone blocking scheme, and while the stretch play might be more difficult for him to pull off in the NFL, a counter or misdirection could give him plenty of room to break away.  And thats not to mention his threat in the passing game.

79 Barrett Jones, OL Alabama- Theres a chance Winters could be still on the board and almost has as much position flexibility as Jones, but Jones has proven what he can do on the biggest stage.  Not once, but twice, and has earned the Rimington and the Outland Trophies.  The kid has started EVERYWHERE on the Bama oline.  Thats the definition of position flexibility.  And while we generally dress 7 or 8 OL on game day, Jones mixed with Foster and Bechums flexibility would allow us to dress 7 and maybe even add a veteran LT at some point.  No, not Starks.

(92 ATL) John Simon, DE/OLB Ohio State- I think Tomlin has been waiting for this moment since he was hired.  Finding a DE/OLB "Tweener" that was a Buckeye.  Its obvious that his favorite Conferences are the SEC and the Big 10, but you could also narrow it down to Florida and Ohio State. While I wasnt a fan of the tape of Simon's Senor Bowl practice of him attempting to drop into coverage, I have read that hes improved.  As usual he will have a year to spell Worilds while learning the defense, and coming in on obvious blitzing calls.  He has speed and power, and unlike other Tweeners in this draft, he has multiple moves.  He doesnt solely bull rush.

115 B.W. Webb, CB William and Mary- Ahhh the Alma Mater.  Weve invited a few mid round CBs all with 2 things in common- speed and hands.  Webb grabbed the attention of scouts and coaches with his play at the Senior Bowl.  While he doesnt have the height Id prefer at CB, he does happen to be the same size as a certain former MT draftee... Ugh, William Gay.  Webb usually plays the LCB spot, but has also played nickel as well as returned punts.  And what makes his 5'10 height ok?- a 40 inch vertical.  Go ahead, put it up.  This kid will give everything he has to go get it, or at least knock it down.  He can give Brown some competition at the dime spot, while actually getting playing time on special teams as a punt returner.

150 Josh Boyce, WR TCU- didja think I forgot about drafting a WR?  I didnt.  The 3 WRs weve brought in so far were mid to late rounders.  Why?  Antonio Brown, thats why.  The selection of Wallace and Sanders have obviously failed as we couldnt retain one, and the other was looking for greener pastures as soon as he could, only to be brought back for his, yes, final year.  Boyce runs very crisp routes, and has lived on YAC.  Did I mention his 4.3 40?  Yes, hes very much like another Antonio but is far more familiar with the route tree.

(163 ATL) Mychal Rivera, TE Tennessee- Here is the pick that Im pissed I didnt figure out weeks ago... even months ago.  Steelers OC Haley drafted Tony Moeaki, a TE from Iowa in the 3rd round 3 years ago.  Rivera is a spitting image.  Like, almost a F'in CLONE.  Theyre similar height, weight, used as a TE inline, slot and in the backfield  Google their pics.  Its almost scary.  This is the blocking/ pass cathcing flex TE that Haley loves!!!  A year behind a healed Miller, as well as competition with Paulson will do him good.  And you thought we went to the TN pro day to look at Bray or the WRs.  Nope.

186 Kwame Geathers, DL Georgia- Typcial Tomlin, drafting a NT late.  Geathers was John Jenkins backup last year, moving from the 5 tech to the 0 tech, and was expected to be the Bulldogs starter this year.  Well, he entered the draft.  Ta'Amu is a drunk, and isnt a 0 tech.  Hes a 3 tech in a 43 defense.  So MT and Colbert get some added competition for the drunkard, but this one has hands on experience at playing at both the DE and the NT spots with SEC competition.  Bye Ta'Amu.  Welcome to the club Kwame.

206 Ryan Griffin, QB Tulane- Ive written about him before.  He is known for his accuracy, though against iffy competition.

223 Michael Mauti, LB PSU- Its about time we drafted a LB from Penn State.  Oh, this one has had 3 ACL tears?  3 ya say?  Not 2?  No.  3.  Shit.  The way I understand it is that weve been involved with the kid for a long long time, and will give him every chance to start out on special teams and maybe fill in for the other seriously injured ILB Spence at some point.  Ive also read that his football smarts are extremely high, and he has a big love for the game.  Its the 7th round, so what the hell.  Why not?

(236 ATL) Justin Brown, WR Oklahoma- Ive been a fan of this kid for a long time now.  He was a PSU transfer that played opposite Kenny Stills.  He has played outside as well as the slot.  He has great separation speed in crisp routes, not so much the 9 route though, but is also built on YAC.  By the way, hey Ben- this kid is 6'3.  Yer welcome.

Thats all for now.  Ill be posting a mock soon that does not have us trading back.  The essence of it is within this draft with only a few differences.  I also took the 8 round mock and tweaked it if we had a certain OG fall in our lap again, as well as one to please all those bastards that are hell bent on us drafting Jarvis Jones.  Even though that would be nothing more than MT and Colbert saying "oops, not only did we totally fuck up the entire 2008 draft we also botched drafting Jason Worilds and Chris Carter."



Wednesday, April 17, 2013

A little insight to the Bears War Room

While it's tough to get a definitive read on what Phil Emery is to do given his brief history as an NFL General Manager, there is a little writing on the wall.  Based on his 1 draft as Bears GM, his history as head scout for the Chiefs and Falcons, and his general personality, I think there are a few things that can help Bears fans kind of know what to expect come draft weekend.

1. Linebacker 1st pick?  The Bears have brought in nearly every LB projected in the top 2 rounds for a private workout.  Arthur Brown, Alec Ogletree, Jon Bostic, Manti Te'o, and Khaseem Greene have or will all have worked out for the Bears at Halas Hall this pre-draft season.  After losing Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach, and only signing 2 guys on 1-year deals, it's well known that the Bears are targeting a LB at some point in this draft.  These visits show the Bears are probably getting one very early in the draft.  If not at 20, then after a trade down or at the latest, with the 50th overall pick in the 2nd round.  Last year, Emery employed the same strategy before the 2012 draft.  The Bears made it clear that they were going after a pass rusher early, bringing in guys like Chandler Jones, Bruce Irvin, Quinton Coples, Nick Perry, and Whitney Mercilus for private workouts.  Emery ultimately selected Shea McClellin with the 19th pick. 

So, on one hand, the Bears are again keying on 1 position first and foremost in the draft.  But on the other, could this be a smokescreen?  It's pretty clear that Emery had his sights set on Bruce Irvin in the 1st, only to have Seattle take him a few picks before them.  Even if the Bears don't go LB with their 1st pick, I'd imagine they'll take one early just based on who they've brought in.  While I do think a smokescreen is possible, Emery doesn't seem like a guy that is into playing these types of games.  Like with McClellin last year, Emery is probably OK with his 2nd or 3rd choice at LB and doesn't care if the world knows it because he's going to get a player he likes either way.  Thinking Ogletree is the ideal target, but I think he'd be OK with Te'o.

2. Watch out for WR early.  Emery has drafted or influenced the drafting of several WRs.  Most recently, the Bears took Alshon Jeffery.  Before that Emery heavily influenced the pick of Jon Baldwin in KC.  And his claim to fame is Roddy White in Atlanta.  What those guys have in common is that they were all selected in the top 3 rounds (can throw in Laurent Robinson and Harry Douglas also).  Emery has mentioned getting a guy to stretch the field at WR in this draft, but most people have assumed that means a late round target.  But I think the WR option is wide open as early as 20, as I don't think the Bears can pass on getting Cutler a dynamic playmaker like Tavon Austin or Cordarelle Patterson, if available.  In the 2nd-3rd rounds (if the Bears can trade for a 3rd), there are several other options the Bears could consider including Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton, and Ryan Swope among others.  With the hiring of an offensive head coach, you have to figure Emery is going to give him a new toy to play with early in the draft.

3. Trade down.  Emery has publicly stated that the #20 pick is for sale and the Bears are very willing to trade down for extra picks.  Not often does a GM come out and say he's looking to trade down and NOT actually do it.  Emery has stated he wants to have 6-8 players to choose from when he picks.  It's not too hard to figure out what teams behind you are targeting in the internet era.  So, assuming 3-4 of those players are on the board at 20, the Bears will undoubtedly trade back for an extra pick or 2 and still get someone from their original pool of players.  I could see the Bears trading back anywhere from Houston at 27 to the early part of the 2nd round by trading with one of the many teams that wanting to trade back into the 1st for a QB.

4. Height/Weight/Speed.  One thing I've quietly noticed about Emery is that he seems to really value freak athlete types.  Baldwin and Jeffery were both big 6-3 WRs who ran sub 4.5 40s, and Emery wanted Jeffery so much he traded up to get him.  Mentioned the Irvin interest before, he was the fastest pass rusher in the draft last year by far, and Emery was one of the few who gave him a 1st round grade.  When that didn't work out, Emery took the 3rd fastest....McClellin.  Emery also selected one of the top 3 fastest TE/FBs in Evan Rodriguez.  He took a 6-4 safety who ran in the 4.4s also in Brandon Hardin.  When in doubt, Emery will take the fastest or biggest freak of an athlete. 

5. Don't forget DLine.  When looking at mock drafts on the web and lists of the Bears team needs, everyone mentions LB and OL first and foremost.  Some have the Bears taking multiple linemen or linebackers (neither will happen).  All have them taking a CB based on the fact that 5 of the 6 on the roster are FAs after 2013.  All have them taking a WR based on Emery's comments.  But people are overlooking the DL.  While the Bears have a ton of FAs everywhere on the roster, the 2 best players on the DL could be ex-Bears at this time in 2014.  Henry Melton is still not signed long-term and Julius Peppers has a huge cap number that he didn't quite live up to in 2012.  If Melton walks and Pep is cut, there will be a huge hole in the front line of the defense.  The Bears could really use more of an interior pass rush as they appear to be losing Amobi Okoye and Israel Idonije, 2 very productive DTs in the last 2 years.  Emery has brought in players all over the field in free agency, but has strangely almost completely neglected a position where their best player is a FA after the year and the top backup at the position is a former UDFA (Collins).  DT is quietly probably the thinnest position on the roster.  The Bears have to take some depth at least here and potentially a starting caliber player early at the position.