This is probably going to be more of a summary of the first 6 games of the season than a preview of the game to come. But I just have to boast about this defense! The Bears D is doing some ridiculous things so far this season. The Bears defense has allowed 10.7 points per game (taking out a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and a fake FG for TD in Green Bay). The defense has allowed 6 touchdowns this year, while scoring 5 themselves. Of the 58 points the defense has allowed, a whopping 28 of them have come in the last 34 seconds of either the 1st or 2nd half. Meaning, the Bears have allowed 30 total points NOT against a 2-minute drill, when they are predominately playing a "soft" Cover 2 scheme. And while the defense does need to tighten up vs. the hurry up offense, keep in mind that of the 28 late in half points, 8 vs. the Cowboys came with most of the second string defense on the field. Another 3 came on a crazy 56-yard FG by the Rams in Soldier Field.
Having allowed just 10.7 points per game. 71 rush yards allowed per game. On pace for 56 sacks and an astonishing 56 turnovers to match. This Bears defense is on pace to go down as one of the best in NFL history. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bears defense is that they are doing it with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers as "role" players and not stars. While Peppers gets the attention of 2 blockers nearly every play, he's been about the 6th or 7th most productive player on the defense. Right now, Henry Melton has been the star of the defensive line, leading the team in sacks and the DL in tackles. Israel Idonije has also been more productive than Peppers in terms of stats. On the last level of the defense, Major Wright has been playing at a probowl level, with strong tackling and providing the consistency he and the rest of the revolving door at S couldn't provide in coverage last year. On the subject of "Pro Bowl level play"....in about 10 days from now Charles "Peanut" Tillman will be named the NFC defensive player of the month, to join his teammate, Tim Jennings as the lone winners of that award so far this season. And in the middle, I feel that Lance Briggs has been the best player on the football team. Briggs leads the team in tackles, has 2 INTs, both for TDs. He's 2nd on the team with 6 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles, and he's been a factor in the pass rush with a sack and several pressures. Chris Conte and Stephen Paea look to be coming around. Neither are making the big splash plays that their teammates are, but both are in the right place most of the time. Once the playmaking comes, the Bears will be 11 deep with defensive vultures. And speaking of coming around, Urlacher looks like he is starting to do that. He's making more plays in the backfield every week. He's getting his hands on more throws in the passing game.
As for this game, it's going to provide a challenge for the Bears D. Last year the Bears really struggled with Cam Newton's size and mobility. They were frustrated with his ability to escape the pocket (to throw, not run) and moreso by their inability to get him to the ground after they had their hands on him. But this year, Cam looks a little off and the Bears D looks a LOT hungrier. I think the Bears will be prepared for his strength and mobility and fare much better this time around. Steve Smith has historically given the Bears problems, so it will be interesting to see how they handle him with the CBs playing at such a high level. I'd like to see a similar strategy with Tillman or Jennings pressing him at the line with safety help deep. Force Cam to throw it to someone else, or make a mistake (as he has many times this year) trying to get the ball to Smith.
On offense, the last 2 years the Bears could have beaten Carolina with me at QB. Matt Forte has run against them at will with over 370 yards in the 2 games. But don't expect the same this year. Knowing Forte has destroyed them and that the Bears passing offense has been inconsistent, I expect Carolina to put a lot of effort into stopping the run, and forcing Jay Cutler to beat them with injured ribs. And I'd imagine when they get the Bears into passing situations, they will try to make Cutler beat them by throwing to someone other than Brandon Marshall. Normally, I'd say this is a good chance to get others involved in the passing game, but they aren't good enough to stop Marshall with all the attention anyway. Carolina's pass D has been below average this year, but they haven't been that bad. They play a lot of Cover 2 and have done a good job of not letting WRs get behind them for big plays. What they have allowed though is teams to dink and dunk them all the way down the field. Look for the Bears to throw a lot on first down, especially with safe throws and screens to the outside or to Forte as the checkdown. This will eventually open up the run game for Forte, or beat the Panthers into submission.
This is the game to get the Bears passing game on a roll. If the Bears can get the passing game going, with a top 10 rushing attack and the league's best defense, this team is a Superbowl favorite, not just a contender. If the offense gets going, frankly, this game shouldn't be close.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 6- Bears vs. Lions, Game Preview
Bye weeks suck! Not playing football on Sunday afternoon also sucks! But I do take solace in the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on Monday Night Football under Jay Cutler. Lovie is actually 9-2 on MNF as Bears coach, with only 3 of them (3-0) being in Chicago. And I like the fact that the Bears get 14-days off before facing a division opponent at home.
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
Saturday, October 13, 2012
2013 NFL Draft, Top 50 Prospects
With the Bears on a bye week, I decided it was a good time to get back to the main reason this blog was started, THE DRAFT!
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
| 1 | Jarvis Jones | OLB | Georgia | could be elite pass rusher or next Lawrence Timmons |
| 2 | Star Lotulelei | DT | Utah | big, strong, athletic. Not quite Ngata, but very good |
| 3 | Jonathan Hankins | DT | Ohio St | not much pass rush, but immovable object inside |
| 4 | Barkevious Mingo | OLB | LSU | athletic, better vs. run than expected. Star potential |
| 5 | Geno Smith | QB | WVU | Aaron Rodgers-like precision, great deep ball, leader |
| 6 | Matt Barkley | QB | USC | better than Leinart/Sanchez, but needs team around him |
| 7 | Justin Hunter | WR | Tennessee | looks like a faster Sidney Rice coming out, similar knee issues too |
| 8 | Eric Reid | FS | LSU | not the elite S prospect like Berry was, but eventual pro-bowler |
| 9 | Keenan Allen | WR | California | 3-step, 5-step, gets open. Versatile WR, fits into several roles |
| 10 | Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas | Cutler II? Gunslinger, fits ball into coverage, needs protection |
| 11 | Chance Warmack | OG | Alabama | Prototype. Big, mobile, if he improves feet, its over for NFL DTs |
| 12 | Johnathan Banks | CB | Miss St | NFL WRs are getting bigger, this guy can matchup size/speed |
| 13 | Tyler Bray | QB | Tennessee | accuracy issues or not, 6'6" w/ rocket arm doesn't grow on trees |
| 14 | Manti Te'o | LB | Notre Dame | playing pass D now? 3-down total package LB, inside 3-4 or 4-3 |
| 15 | Dee Milliner | CB | Alabama | Size, speed, physical, only ? Is can he play w/o dominant front 7 |
| 16 | Barrett Jones | OG | Alabama | Not a true stud, but 8-10 year starter at any of C, LG, RG, even LT |
| 17 | Sam Montgomery | DE | LSU | higher to some, but needs to add weight, "get off", HUGE upside |
| 18 | Xavier Rhodes | CB | Florida St | press coverage CB, almost exclusively. Good tape vs. top WRs |
| 19 | Marcus Lattimore | RB | S Carolina | Knee injury stinks, but #1 HS recruit of '10 is clone of Arian Foster |
| 20 | Luke Joeckel | OT | Texas A&M | Starting LT since Frosh yr, had success vs. a lot of NFL DE talent |
| 21 | Bjoern Werner | DE | Florida St | Athletic, motor, upside. Perfect 4-3 DE size, can't play 3-4 though |
| 22 | Robert Woods | WR | USC | Not seeing Marvin Harrison comps, but good player, scary in slot |
| 23 | David Amerson | CB/FS | NC State | think he's an NFL FS. FS with coverage skills still worth high pick |
| 24 | Jonathan Cooper | OG | UNC | Solid, 4-year starter, rarely misses assignments at DL or LB level |
| 25 | Tyler Eifert | TE | Notre Dame | Excellent receiver. 6'6", can run, who cares if he can block? |
| 26 | Kawaan Short | DT | Purdue | Dominates at times, but can disappear. Conditioning is key |
| 27 | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan | Looks the part, but very raw. Nastier version Nate Solder |
| 28 | John Jenkins | DT | Georgia | Immovable object. Won't put up stats, but occupies 2 OL all times |
| 29 | Terrance Williams | WR | Baylor | Not a #1 WR, but strong 2, who can stretch the field. Hands? |
| 30 | Jackson Jeffcoat | DE | Texas | Fast, edge rusher, more OLB than 4-3 DE at this point, can add lbs |
| 31 | Corey Lemonier | OLB | Auburn | Least athletic, but most consistent producer of deep OLB/DE class |
| 32 | Alex Okafor | DE | Texas | More NFL ready than teammate, more 4-3 DE, plays solid run D |
| 33 | Dallas Thomas | OG/OT | Tennessee | Good feet and hand placement, moved to LG after 3 years @ LT |
| 34 | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M | Athletic, needs to get bigger/stronger, but dad is HOF OT, I'm sold! |
| 35 | Sharrif Floyd | DT | Florida | Uses hands really well, quick enough to play some DE, Melton 2.0? |
| 36 | DJ Fluker | OT | Alabama | Either a RT or big LG ala Gallery, at next level to me, very strong |
| 37 | William Gholston | DE | Michigan St | Poor man's Quinton Coples, shows flashes, but needs more |
| 38 | Matt Elam | S | Florida | Little size & speed, but plays big in box. Best cover S in draft. |
| 39 | Michael Buchanan | DE | Illinois | A blur off the edge, flashed while watching Mercilus. Run D is ? |
| 40 | TJ McDonald | S | USC | Versatile S, with NFL bloodlines, experience in pro style D |
| 41 | Khaled Holmes | OC | USC | Athletic, tough C in the mold of the Pounceys, not quite as good |
| 42 | Alec Ogletree | LB | Georgia | Long, fast LB can play inside or outside in 30 or 40 front, climber |
| 43 | Brennan Williams | OT | UNC | Son of NFL DT, strong run blocking RT, can work on footwork |
| 44 | Kenny Vaccaro | S | Texas | Playmaking S who can really run and cover, can work on tackling |
| 45 | Sylvester Williams | DT | UNC | 4-3 or 3-4 NT, good motor, not much of a pass rusher |
| 46 | Oday Aboushi | OT | Virginia | Raw, with lots of LT upside. If feet don't come, could play LG |
| 47 | Dion Jordan | DE | Oregon | long (6-7) lean athlete, who can bend, can get stronger at POA |
| 48 | Kevin Reddick | LB | UNC | Laterally gifted LB, could play inside or strong in 4-3. Can cover |
| 49 | Sean Porter | OLB | Texas A&M | Not the next Von Miller, but could be 4-3 Sam LB, blitz at times |
| 50 | Tavon Austin | WR | WVU | slot WR, kick returner, productive. Harvin, Antonio Brown type |
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5- Bears @ Jaguars, Game Preview
Lovie is known for breaking the season down in quarters, by each set of 4 games. Well, the Bears got out of the 1st quarter of the season in pretty good shape. At 3-1, the Bears are about where I expected them to be. Won the 2 games at home against teams they were clearly superior to. Beat the Cowboys sounded on the road. Only loss was losing the home opener for the Packers on a short week. Granted, I was pretty optimistic about the GB game given both team's openers, but that wasn't a game that was circled on the schedule as one the Bears "had to have".
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
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