Week 1- Both teams clicking on all cylinders. One upends the defending world champions on their home field. The other shows the world that their new-found offensive weapons are something to be reckoned with. The word "Superbowl" is mentioned when talking about both teams.
Week 2- Both teams get embarrassed on the road. One gets a long week and takes a 20-point loss. One gets a short week and takes a double digit loss.
Week 3- Both teams pick up much needed victories, but neither is impressive. Both offenses struggle with lackluster OL play, inconsistency from receivers, erratic QB play, and underwhelming play calling.
Despite being polar opposites schematically and philosophically, the Bears and Cowboys have been mirror images of each other for a few years now. Both teams have pretty boy QBs, that have dated reality TV stars, and who the media loves to hate. Both teams have also very recently taken heartbreaking Week 17 losses to allow their biggest rivals to be the "last team in" the playoffs, only to see said rival hoist the Lombardi trophy, 5 weeks later. So far this season, both teams have shown flashes of brilliance on offense, but both have been carried by strong defense, particularly pass defense.
The Cowboys bolstered their pass game this offseason by signing FA, Brandon Carr and trading up to draft #1 CB, Morris Claiborne. The Bears kept the status quo, and it has paid heavy dividends. Tim Jennings currently leads the NFL, allowing a 4.6 passer rating to QBs who dare throw his way. Jennings leads the league with 4 INTs, and one of his pass breakups last week led to a Major Wright TD to ice the Rams. Yet, Jennings has had a ton of balls thrown his way. That says to me, Charles Tillman must really be playing good football on the other side of the field. Throw in DJ Moore having a strong Week 3, and there's your key matchups on both sides.
Tillman-Jennings-Moore will presumably play a lot of man coverage vs. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Kevin Ogletree. Likewise, Claiborne and Carr will be 1-on-1 a lot vs. Marshall and Jeffery. Helping the Bears trio is a defensive front 4 that has been dominant getting after the QB this year. The Bears lead the league with 14 QB sacks, with 5 players having at least 1.5. So, the Bears will come after the suspect Cowboys OL from all angles. But I would be foolish if I left out the fact that the 'Boys have possibly the best pass rusher in the NFL going against possibly the worst pass blocking OT in the NFL, on their side. If the Bears help out Webb a lot, watch for the blitz (don't have much help for Ware rushing the passer) and the Cowboys to gamble with their CBs and try to force Cutler into a poor throw.
The Cowboys have been strong defensively to start the year, but I feel there are ways the Bears can attack them. Some of the parts have changed, but Week 2 from 2010 is a blueprint of how the Bears can win this game. The Bears need to play fast. Not sure how much no huddle the Bears have in the playbook, but the Cowboys aren't a very deep team defensively. Ratliff and Coleman missed last week along their D-line. Spears and Lissemore have joined them on the injury report for this week. The Bears need to get the ball out of Cutler's hands quickly and put pressure on the Cowboys to tackle the Bears big WRs in the open field. Unlike 2 years ago, I do think the Bears will be able to run the ball against Dallas. Bush looks good to go this week, but if Forte also is able to go, the Bears will have the potential to hit them up inside and out to keep them off-balanced.
I also look for special teams to have an impact in this game. Hester loves it indoors, and has been closer and closer to breaking one the last 2 weeks. Bryant has also shown some explosion in the return game and had a return TD vs. the Bears in 2010. Short fields will play a huge factor this week, with 2 struggling offense. But despite the struggling offenses in this one, I actually expect some points to be put on the board. Maybe even as many as the 47 from a couple years ago. Winner gets a huge boost, as the victor will move to 3-1 in the competitive NFC. Dallas may have more at stake with games @ Balt, Atl, and Philly with the Giants also coming to town in the next 5. The Bears follow with 4 games they should be favored in, before the schedule gets really tough. A Bears win would give them a strong shot at a playoff berth.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Week 3- Bears vs. Rams, Game Preview
No team should be more anxious to take the field in Week 3 than the Chicago Bears. The world has been talking for 10 days about a sideline incident that has pretty much happened before in every game with every team, including Rodgers getting into James Jones face in the very same game. But anyway, after talking to the media about this for 10 days, the Bears will be ready to take the field tomorrow to show the world they are better than the team that showed up in Green Bay last Thursday night.
Many Bears fans are concerned about this feisty Rams team. And frankly, the Rams could easily be 2-0 right now had they not blown a lead to Detroit late. But as I said Week 1, if the Bears don't handle this team, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, the way they were projected before the season. The Rams have been pretty solid offensively so far this year, especially in the run game. But don't expect that to continue against the Bears D that has been pretty tough to run against for the last 10 years. The Rams have done almost nothing on defense other than intercept the ball. 4 picks in 2 games, but 3 of them came early vs. Stafford in Week 1. They've still allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league so far, despite seriously upgrading their defensive backs. Speaking of DBs....lost in the drama of the last 10 days is the fact that Green Bay completely shut down the Bears WRs, mainly Brandon Marshall by playing 2-man coverage on him, with a CB jumping short routes knowing he had safety help over the top. The Bears have to make sure that the same scheme is NOT successful again. A couple reasons why I think that may not work:
A) The Bears have had 10 days to practice against that type of coverage, and hopefully they have something in store (Cutler fitting the ball into the window between CB and FS) or getting the ball to Marshall on 3-step patterns before the safety help comes into the picture.
B) Cortland Finnegan is a cocky SOB. He was paid a lot of money. And he's going to want the challenge of taking Marshall 1-on-1 at times. And if the Bears start gashing the Rams run D, Fisher isn't going to want to commit that extra player (FS) to Marshall when he has a probowl CB at his disposal.
Cutler cannot be afraid of the 2-man coverage and find his openings to get the ball to Marshall. But he also has to pick his spots to do so.
The last few years the Bears have kind of had to be beaten in the head before they run a legitimate offensive attack. I know this is a passing league, but the reason the pass is so successful is because offenses are designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands faster and make more efficient throws. The Bears have called way too many 5-7 step drops so far thru 2 games. Quick math shows about 75-80% of drop backs have been more than 3-steps. That's not going to get it done with this OL. The Bears have big WRs now that can win in the short passing game and not get bumped off their routes like in years past.
After giving up 9 sacks in 1 half vs. the Giants in 2010, and 8 sacks vs. the Saints and Packers in Weeks 2-3 last year, the Bears were fortunate enough to play the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of both seasons. This year, it's the Rams, who frankly, are a similar team. The Bears were able to run the ball at will both years vs. Carolina, taking all the pressure off of the QB (Todd Collins in 2010). Carolina was very weak in the middle with suspect DTs. With Brockers likely out for the Rams, they too will fit that bill. With Michael Bush getting the bulk of the action this week, the Bears will be more willing to pound the ball up the middle, taking the weight off of Cutler's (and the OL's) shoulders. I wouldn't expect Cutler to throw the ball more than 25 times in this game. And when he does throw, the Bears have to remember that Bush CAN be a factor in the passing game. Bush is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Caught 37 passes in Oakland despite only 9 starts. The checkdown should still be a viable option, unlike last week when the Bears almost refused to dump the ball after Forte went out last week.
Week 1, I expected the Bears to put up 30+ and win by 2 TDs. They did. Week 2, I expected them to be competitive and possibly get a W in Green Bay. They did not. This week, I expect a very conservative attack, but I expect them to move the ball and hand it over to the defense to stop St. Louis. Bears get back on track this Sunday!
Many Bears fans are concerned about this feisty Rams team. And frankly, the Rams could easily be 2-0 right now had they not blown a lead to Detroit late. But as I said Week 1, if the Bears don't handle this team, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, the way they were projected before the season. The Rams have been pretty solid offensively so far this year, especially in the run game. But don't expect that to continue against the Bears D that has been pretty tough to run against for the last 10 years. The Rams have done almost nothing on defense other than intercept the ball. 4 picks in 2 games, but 3 of them came early vs. Stafford in Week 1. They've still allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league so far, despite seriously upgrading their defensive backs. Speaking of DBs....lost in the drama of the last 10 days is the fact that Green Bay completely shut down the Bears WRs, mainly Brandon Marshall by playing 2-man coverage on him, with a CB jumping short routes knowing he had safety help over the top. The Bears have to make sure that the same scheme is NOT successful again. A couple reasons why I think that may not work:
A) The Bears have had 10 days to practice against that type of coverage, and hopefully they have something in store (Cutler fitting the ball into the window between CB and FS) or getting the ball to Marshall on 3-step patterns before the safety help comes into the picture.
B) Cortland Finnegan is a cocky SOB. He was paid a lot of money. And he's going to want the challenge of taking Marshall 1-on-1 at times. And if the Bears start gashing the Rams run D, Fisher isn't going to want to commit that extra player (FS) to Marshall when he has a probowl CB at his disposal.
Cutler cannot be afraid of the 2-man coverage and find his openings to get the ball to Marshall. But he also has to pick his spots to do so.
The last few years the Bears have kind of had to be beaten in the head before they run a legitimate offensive attack. I know this is a passing league, but the reason the pass is so successful is because offenses are designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands faster and make more efficient throws. The Bears have called way too many 5-7 step drops so far thru 2 games. Quick math shows about 75-80% of drop backs have been more than 3-steps. That's not going to get it done with this OL. The Bears have big WRs now that can win in the short passing game and not get bumped off their routes like in years past.
After giving up 9 sacks in 1 half vs. the Giants in 2010, and 8 sacks vs. the Saints and Packers in Weeks 2-3 last year, the Bears were fortunate enough to play the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of both seasons. This year, it's the Rams, who frankly, are a similar team. The Bears were able to run the ball at will both years vs. Carolina, taking all the pressure off of the QB (Todd Collins in 2010). Carolina was very weak in the middle with suspect DTs. With Brockers likely out for the Rams, they too will fit that bill. With Michael Bush getting the bulk of the action this week, the Bears will be more willing to pound the ball up the middle, taking the weight off of Cutler's (and the OL's) shoulders. I wouldn't expect Cutler to throw the ball more than 25 times in this game. And when he does throw, the Bears have to remember that Bush CAN be a factor in the passing game. Bush is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Caught 37 passes in Oakland despite only 9 starts. The checkdown should still be a viable option, unlike last week when the Bears almost refused to dump the ball after Forte went out last week.
Week 1, I expected the Bears to put up 30+ and win by 2 TDs. They did. Week 2, I expected them to be competitive and possibly get a W in Green Bay. They did not. This week, I expect a very conservative attack, but I expect them to move the ball and hand it over to the defense to stop St. Louis. Bears get back on track this Sunday!
Monday, September 17, 2012
Bear Game 2 Analysis
I don't know that I'm going to do this every week, but like most Bears fans, last Thursday's game is really baffling me.
The main concern I have after re-watching this game, is who the hell let Mike Martz back into the Bears box? I'm not even going to get into J'Marcus Webb giving up 2 1/2 sacks to Clay Matthews. Not even going to get into Chris Spencer and Garza giving up 3-4 more up the middle. Why? Because I knew well before Thursday's kickoff that J'Marcus Webb could not block Matthews 1-on-1. I knew Chris Spencer would struggle picking up the blitz and handling guys like Raji and Daniels. But what I cannot understand for the life of me is, if I know the Bears can't win these matchups....and everyone who will read this knows the Bears couldn't win those matchups....then why can't the coaching staff who's been around these guys for 2-3 years not figure this out?
Cutler dropped back to pass 34 times, was sacked 7 of them. Of those 34 dropbacks, I generously counted a whopping 7 three-step drops, as I counted anything in question as a 3-step. Two of those 7 plays were 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 33 (after the Webb blown block that started the incident) respectively. Two more were late in the game as Marshall's only 2 catches. Now to be fair, I only counted 10 3-step drops in the opener vs. the Colts. However, the caveat is that the Colts weren't getting in Cutler's face with the pass rush at will.
I'm very disappointed that Mike Mar...er Tice refused to adjust his flawed game plan when; A) Cutler was getting knocked around every play or B) when Brandon Marshall went more than 2 series without a target or reception. Common sense would say that if a team is teeing off on your QB, you get the ball out of his hands faster. When you want to give routes more time to develop, you move the pocket. The Bears refused to do either, and lost miserably.
The playcalling is my main issue, but I also have a few other thoughts that came to mind while watching this game.
- For a team that is supposedly based in the Cover 2 zone defense....the Bears really suck at zone defense. The times the D was able to make stops, plays on the pass or get sacks, it's because they were in man coverage and were able to lock down the Packers WRs. The Packers only offensive TD was vs. the Cover 2 when Major Wright was well out of place.
- Every year we hear how Devin Hester is tearing it up in camp, yet he rarely shows up on Sundays. Drops passes and doesn't get open nearly as much as his speed and shiftiness would lead you to believe.
- Michael Bush is 245lbs, but he's not a FB. The Bears seem to be hellbent on using him as a battering ram between the tackles, but refuse to involve him in the passing game. Someone needs to tell the Bears that Bush caught 37 passes last year, which is impressive considering he only started 9 games.
- The Bears can still get it done on D. Aging or not, Briggs, Urlacher, Tillman and Peppers are almost as good as they've ever been. Tim Jennings needs to make the pro bowl this year.
The main concern I have after re-watching this game, is who the hell let Mike Martz back into the Bears box? I'm not even going to get into J'Marcus Webb giving up 2 1/2 sacks to Clay Matthews. Not even going to get into Chris Spencer and Garza giving up 3-4 more up the middle. Why? Because I knew well before Thursday's kickoff that J'Marcus Webb could not block Matthews 1-on-1. I knew Chris Spencer would struggle picking up the blitz and handling guys like Raji and Daniels. But what I cannot understand for the life of me is, if I know the Bears can't win these matchups....and everyone who will read this knows the Bears couldn't win those matchups....then why can't the coaching staff who's been around these guys for 2-3 years not figure this out?
Cutler dropped back to pass 34 times, was sacked 7 of them. Of those 34 dropbacks, I generously counted a whopping 7 three-step drops, as I counted anything in question as a 3-step. Two of those 7 plays were 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 33 (after the Webb blown block that started the incident) respectively. Two more were late in the game as Marshall's only 2 catches. Now to be fair, I only counted 10 3-step drops in the opener vs. the Colts. However, the caveat is that the Colts weren't getting in Cutler's face with the pass rush at will.
I'm very disappointed that Mike Mar...er Tice refused to adjust his flawed game plan when; A) Cutler was getting knocked around every play or B) when Brandon Marshall went more than 2 series without a target or reception. Common sense would say that if a team is teeing off on your QB, you get the ball out of his hands faster. When you want to give routes more time to develop, you move the pocket. The Bears refused to do either, and lost miserably.
The playcalling is my main issue, but I also have a few other thoughts that came to mind while watching this game.
- For a team that is supposedly based in the Cover 2 zone defense....the Bears really suck at zone defense. The times the D was able to make stops, plays on the pass or get sacks, it's because they were in man coverage and were able to lock down the Packers WRs. The Packers only offensive TD was vs. the Cover 2 when Major Wright was well out of place.
- Every year we hear how Devin Hester is tearing it up in camp, yet he rarely shows up on Sundays. Drops passes and doesn't get open nearly as much as his speed and shiftiness would lead you to believe.
- Michael Bush is 245lbs, but he's not a FB. The Bears seem to be hellbent on using him as a battering ram between the tackles, but refuse to involve him in the passing game. Someone needs to tell the Bears that Bush caught 37 passes last year, which is impressive considering he only started 9 games.
- The Bears can still get it done on D. Aging or not, Briggs, Urlacher, Tillman and Peppers are almost as good as they've ever been. Tim Jennings needs to make the pro bowl this year.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Week 2- Bears @ Packers, Game Preview
Well, my keys didn't really factor that much in Week 1. The Bears didn't run that much or that well up the middle vs. the undersized Colts D. The return game wasn't a huge factor. But the Bears did dominate for the most part as I expected. Now comes PACKER WEEK. Not that this wasn't going to be a pivotal game for the NFC North anyway, but the Bears have a huge chance here to put themselves in the driver's seat. With the Lions playing the Niners, who already beat the Packers....a Bears win puts them at 2-0, with the Packers at 0-2. The Bears would have the only division win, and it would be on the road. The Lions and Packers will also already have common game losses to the 49ers, meaning a Bears win over San Francisco later in the year would be like gaining another game in the division and conference......But I am getting way ahead of myself. First things first, gotta beat the Cheeseheads.
I'm probably way more confident about this game than I should be. After all, the Packers have pretty much dominated the Bears since their previous QB retired....came back...retired again....came back with another team.....retired......came back again with another team.....retired....came back...and then was knocked into retirement for good. But while Aaron Rodgers is 7-2 vs. the Bears, he's never put up quite the numbers against them as he has against other teams. And this isn't your father's Chicago Bears team.
The Packers have frankly, had their way with the Bears WRs in the past by being physical. I know this has been touched on in the media this week, but the Packers were truly able to push Johnny Knox and Devin Hester around as the 1-2 WRs on the outside. Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson were able to fight through Knox and Hester to break up slant patterns, they were able press them down the field and out muscle them for the ball for either an INT or an incompletion. Already, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have shown that they are not Johnny Knox on the outside. If you look back on the 3rd preseason game vs. the Giants, Jay Cutler threw to both Marshall and Jeffery on separate occasions when they were completely covered by CB, Michael Coe. Both times, Coe jumped the route for what would have been possible pick 6's last year...but both plays resulted in completed passes as Marshall and Jeffery refused to be out muscled for the ball. Now, the Packers have Sam Shields coming off the bench, with Charles Woodson at SS. Jarrett Bush is starting at CB opposite of Williams, and he should be a safety also. The 31st ranked pass defense has gotten worse, in my opinion, and the Bears passing game has gotten remarkably better in a single offseason. Not only that, but the Packers have yet to face Gabe Carimi. Carimi was lost for the season, before last year's Week 3 matchup. This is significant because Carimi will be facing off with the Packers' lone pass rusher in their front 7, Clay Matthews. Not that I expect Gabe to completely handle Matthews, but it should be a monumental improvement over Frank Omiyale (aka Frank OMG) and Lance Louis playing out of position at RT. I now welcome the blitz from Woodson, as now Cutler should be able to make the hot read without a CB being able to jump the route. The Packers would be best served by throwing out any game tape they have on the Bears the last 3 years, because it's not going to do them any good this year.
As for the defense, the Bears definitely have some work to do compared to past seasons. The possibility of Greg Jennings being out obviously works in the Bears favor. However, I was looking forward to seeing if the Week 1 version of Tim Jennings could carry over into Lambeau vs. Greg Jennings. Tim got basically eaten alive by Greg in a couple games the last 2 years, and was bench for the Week 16 game vs. GB last year. Because of that, I expect Tim Jennings to really show up tomorrow (whether he faces Jennings or James Jones) and have another productive game. If Jennings is out, that also puts either Charles Tillman (if he plays) or Kelvin Hayden on Jordy Nelson, another matchup that I really like. Nelson hasn't done very much against the Bears other than Week 16 when he saw a lot of Zach Bowman, who isn't very good. So, to me, the key matchups will be in the middle of the field. I like DJ Moore vs. Donald Driver in the slot, and about 50x more than I like Moore vs. Jennings when he lines up in the slot as he often does in the 3-4wide set. But the Bears have never been able to defend Jermichael Finley. This year probably won't be any different. Another issue for the defense may also be Randall Cobb. Cobb was essentially used as the Packers 3rd down RB vs. SF last week and had a pretty good game getting matched up on some really good LBs for the Niners. The Bears LBs are great, but not as fast as they once were and not as fast as the 49ers group. If Greg Jennings is out, this would allow the Bears to put Tim Jennings on one side with Tillman/Hayden on the other. I like both of those matchups for the Bears. It would also put Driver as the primary slot WR. I think Driver's lack of speed would allow the Bears to use DJ Moore exclusively to spy on Cobb out of the backfield. Hopefully, that would mean Briggs, Urlacher, and Wright for Jermichael Finley, Driver in the slot, and Rodgers outside the pocket, with Chris Conte as the single high safety. You're not going to stop all the weapons that GB has, but with Jennings out, the Bears may be able to take away the outside somewhat and make the Packers put all their eggs in the Finley basket. The Bears have enough offense now to beat the Packers even if Finley dominates, provided they can limit the outside WRs.
In the NFL's oldest rivalry, there aren't many secrets. But I feel that the Bears have more that the Packers haven't seen than vice versa. The Bears had very little turnover on their roster, yet the Packers have never seen Carimi, Marshall, Jeffery, even Chris Conte (who was not a starter Week 3 and missed Week 16's game) suited up for the Bears. It's always difficult to win a road game within the division. Even tougher when it's a primetime game. But I think the Bears can again rattle Rodgers a little, while being able to counterpunch now on offense, and I truly feel the Bears will come out of Lambeau with a W.
I'm probably way more confident about this game than I should be. After all, the Packers have pretty much dominated the Bears since their previous QB retired....came back...retired again....came back with another team.....retired......came back again with another team.....retired....came back...and then was knocked into retirement for good. But while Aaron Rodgers is 7-2 vs. the Bears, he's never put up quite the numbers against them as he has against other teams. And this isn't your father's Chicago Bears team.
The Packers have frankly, had their way with the Bears WRs in the past by being physical. I know this has been touched on in the media this week, but the Packers were truly able to push Johnny Knox and Devin Hester around as the 1-2 WRs on the outside. Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson were able to fight through Knox and Hester to break up slant patterns, they were able press them down the field and out muscle them for the ball for either an INT or an incompletion. Already, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have shown that they are not Johnny Knox on the outside. If you look back on the 3rd preseason game vs. the Giants, Jay Cutler threw to both Marshall and Jeffery on separate occasions when they were completely covered by CB, Michael Coe. Both times, Coe jumped the route for what would have been possible pick 6's last year...but both plays resulted in completed passes as Marshall and Jeffery refused to be out muscled for the ball. Now, the Packers have Sam Shields coming off the bench, with Charles Woodson at SS. Jarrett Bush is starting at CB opposite of Williams, and he should be a safety also. The 31st ranked pass defense has gotten worse, in my opinion, and the Bears passing game has gotten remarkably better in a single offseason. Not only that, but the Packers have yet to face Gabe Carimi. Carimi was lost for the season, before last year's Week 3 matchup. This is significant because Carimi will be facing off with the Packers' lone pass rusher in their front 7, Clay Matthews. Not that I expect Gabe to completely handle Matthews, but it should be a monumental improvement over Frank Omiyale (aka Frank OMG) and Lance Louis playing out of position at RT. I now welcome the blitz from Woodson, as now Cutler should be able to make the hot read without a CB being able to jump the route. The Packers would be best served by throwing out any game tape they have on the Bears the last 3 years, because it's not going to do them any good this year.
As for the defense, the Bears definitely have some work to do compared to past seasons. The possibility of Greg Jennings being out obviously works in the Bears favor. However, I was looking forward to seeing if the Week 1 version of Tim Jennings could carry over into Lambeau vs. Greg Jennings. Tim got basically eaten alive by Greg in a couple games the last 2 years, and was bench for the Week 16 game vs. GB last year. Because of that, I expect Tim Jennings to really show up tomorrow (whether he faces Jennings or James Jones) and have another productive game. If Jennings is out, that also puts either Charles Tillman (if he plays) or Kelvin Hayden on Jordy Nelson, another matchup that I really like. Nelson hasn't done very much against the Bears other than Week 16 when he saw a lot of Zach Bowman, who isn't very good. So, to me, the key matchups will be in the middle of the field. I like DJ Moore vs. Donald Driver in the slot, and about 50x more than I like Moore vs. Jennings when he lines up in the slot as he often does in the 3-4wide set. But the Bears have never been able to defend Jermichael Finley. This year probably won't be any different. Another issue for the defense may also be Randall Cobb. Cobb was essentially used as the Packers 3rd down RB vs. SF last week and had a pretty good game getting matched up on some really good LBs for the Niners. The Bears LBs are great, but not as fast as they once were and not as fast as the 49ers group. If Greg Jennings is out, this would allow the Bears to put Tim Jennings on one side with Tillman/Hayden on the other. I like both of those matchups for the Bears. It would also put Driver as the primary slot WR. I think Driver's lack of speed would allow the Bears to use DJ Moore exclusively to spy on Cobb out of the backfield. Hopefully, that would mean Briggs, Urlacher, and Wright for Jermichael Finley, Driver in the slot, and Rodgers outside the pocket, with Chris Conte as the single high safety. You're not going to stop all the weapons that GB has, but with Jennings out, the Bears may be able to take away the outside somewhat and make the Packers put all their eggs in the Finley basket. The Bears have enough offense now to beat the Packers even if Finley dominates, provided they can limit the outside WRs.
In the NFL's oldest rivalry, there aren't many secrets. But I feel that the Bears have more that the Packers haven't seen than vice versa. The Bears had very little turnover on their roster, yet the Packers have never seen Carimi, Marshall, Jeffery, even Chris Conte (who was not a starter Week 3 and missed Week 16's game) suited up for the Bears. It's always difficult to win a road game within the division. Even tougher when it's a primetime game. But I think the Bears can again rattle Rodgers a little, while being able to counterpunch now on offense, and I truly feel the Bears will come out of Lambeau with a W.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Week 1: Colts vs. Bears, Game Preview
Every week, I'll give my game preview and keys to the game. This is not going to be your run-of-the mill, NFL pre-game show stuff that you can see on FOX or NFL Network, done with very little research. I'll hopefully be able to add some insight into areas of the game that the average person/fan doesn't really think about.
For the Colts game, I'll be honest here.....I'd be pretty disappointed if the Bears don't have their way in this game. The Colts have nothing going for them other than the fact they have one of the best QB prospects on their roster since the former starting QB on their roster was a prospect. The Colts won 2 games last year, none until Week 15. They'll win more and sooner than that this year, but it shouldn't be Week 1. My keys to the game:
1. BIG BOY FOOTBALL. The Bears really need to bully this team. The Colts are in their 1st year of the 3-4 defense, and while some teams have had success while changing schemes, the Colts have almost none of the pieces in place to make this scheme successful. Mathis is a 245lb OLB, the interior LBs are 234 and 243 respectively....all 3 guys are smaller than Bears RB, Michael Bush. Their "big" LB is Dwight Freeney listed at 268lbs, but he's a 4-3 DE, never having stood up before in his career. Mathis and Freeney have always been known for their pass rush ability, but their ability to stop the run has never been a strong suit for them. Nose tackle, Antonio Johnson, is also only 310lbs and his scouting report reads his strengths as explosion and quickness, with his weaknesses being strength and ability to get off blocks when engaged....the exact opposite of what you want out of your 3-4 anchor in the middle. Now, the Bears strong suit isn't really running the ball up the gut, but in this game, I think they will have success in the tackle box moreso than the outside with the speed the Colts have.
2. Remember the Superbowl. Every Bears fan remembers the first play of SB XLI. Devin Hester takes the opening kickoff 92 yards for an opening TD. Well, it hasn't gotten much better for the Colts since then. Indianapolis has finished 5 of the last 6 seasons as one of the 5 worst kickoff coverage teams (yards per return), and they aren't much better on punt returns, never finishing better than middle of the pack in the NFL. And with 11 rookies and a lot of roster turnover, they don't appear to be much of a match for the best special teams in the business. If the Bears don't take a kick back, I look for a couple really strong returns setting the Bears up on a short field.
3. Not your typical rookie QB. The Bears have typically faired pretty well against rookie QBs, especially ones without a lot of weapons to play with. But admittedly, Andrew Luck is not your typical rookie. The Bears won't be able to get away with just playing Cover 2 all game, because Luck is smart enough to pick that apart. And contrary to popular belief, the Bears are not nearly an exclusive Cover 2 team, playing in that coverage less than 50% of the defensive snaps. However, the Bears also won't be able to blitz Luck all day long, simply because of his inexperience. The key will be mixing it up. Going to have to give Luck a lot of different pre-snap reads, and will have to change out of those looks at the snap. You can blitz him, but gotta disguise it, hoping he makes the wrong hot read and makes a mistake. I don't think you have to worry too much about the deep ball, because the Colts don't have a ton of deep speed and I don't think that OL can block the Bears front long enough to hit a bomb. Wayne isn't fast enough anymore to force the Bears to keep the FS over top at all times like a few years ago. I think Jennings can run with him in man most of the game. Tillman can be more physical on the bigger, less shifty, Austin Collie on the other side. This should help free up the safeties and LBs to cover the middle of the field with the RBs, TEs, and slot WRs where I think Luck will look to have most of his success. But I also don't think you can let Luck move the ball down the field with Aaron Rodgers-like precision. Switching up the looks on D will not allow Luck to get comfortable in the pocket, and at Stanford, he struggled a little when forced to move around.
4. One at a time. Now this is one that mainstream media may touch on, but I had to do so also. This is a strange season as the Bears have to travel to Lambeau on a short week this early in the year. The Bears are naturally going to be accused of "looking ahead" if they don't dominate like I described in my first point. My biggest worry with looking ahead is that the Bears get too concerned about what they put out there on tape for Green Bay. For the most part, the Bears and Packers know what each other is going to try to do. They've played several times under the current head coaches. But I do worry that Mike Tice won't want to show his entire offensive repertoire in his first year as Bears OC. While the Bears should be able to beat the Colts with a vanilla gameplan, they shouldn't get caught up in that because of the Packers looming. Run your offense and force the 31st ranked pass defense from a year ago to stop it with 3 days to prepare.
For the Colts game, I'll be honest here.....I'd be pretty disappointed if the Bears don't have their way in this game. The Colts have nothing going for them other than the fact they have one of the best QB prospects on their roster since the former starting QB on their roster was a prospect. The Colts won 2 games last year, none until Week 15. They'll win more and sooner than that this year, but it shouldn't be Week 1. My keys to the game:
1. BIG BOY FOOTBALL. The Bears really need to bully this team. The Colts are in their 1st year of the 3-4 defense, and while some teams have had success while changing schemes, the Colts have almost none of the pieces in place to make this scheme successful. Mathis is a 245lb OLB, the interior LBs are 234 and 243 respectively....all 3 guys are smaller than Bears RB, Michael Bush. Their "big" LB is Dwight Freeney listed at 268lbs, but he's a 4-3 DE, never having stood up before in his career. Mathis and Freeney have always been known for their pass rush ability, but their ability to stop the run has never been a strong suit for them. Nose tackle, Antonio Johnson, is also only 310lbs and his scouting report reads his strengths as explosion and quickness, with his weaknesses being strength and ability to get off blocks when engaged....the exact opposite of what you want out of your 3-4 anchor in the middle. Now, the Bears strong suit isn't really running the ball up the gut, but in this game, I think they will have success in the tackle box moreso than the outside with the speed the Colts have.
2. Remember the Superbowl. Every Bears fan remembers the first play of SB XLI. Devin Hester takes the opening kickoff 92 yards for an opening TD. Well, it hasn't gotten much better for the Colts since then. Indianapolis has finished 5 of the last 6 seasons as one of the 5 worst kickoff coverage teams (yards per return), and they aren't much better on punt returns, never finishing better than middle of the pack in the NFL. And with 11 rookies and a lot of roster turnover, they don't appear to be much of a match for the best special teams in the business. If the Bears don't take a kick back, I look for a couple really strong returns setting the Bears up on a short field.
3. Not your typical rookie QB. The Bears have typically faired pretty well against rookie QBs, especially ones without a lot of weapons to play with. But admittedly, Andrew Luck is not your typical rookie. The Bears won't be able to get away with just playing Cover 2 all game, because Luck is smart enough to pick that apart. And contrary to popular belief, the Bears are not nearly an exclusive Cover 2 team, playing in that coverage less than 50% of the defensive snaps. However, the Bears also won't be able to blitz Luck all day long, simply because of his inexperience. The key will be mixing it up. Going to have to give Luck a lot of different pre-snap reads, and will have to change out of those looks at the snap. You can blitz him, but gotta disguise it, hoping he makes the wrong hot read and makes a mistake. I don't think you have to worry too much about the deep ball, because the Colts don't have a ton of deep speed and I don't think that OL can block the Bears front long enough to hit a bomb. Wayne isn't fast enough anymore to force the Bears to keep the FS over top at all times like a few years ago. I think Jennings can run with him in man most of the game. Tillman can be more physical on the bigger, less shifty, Austin Collie on the other side. This should help free up the safeties and LBs to cover the middle of the field with the RBs, TEs, and slot WRs where I think Luck will look to have most of his success. But I also don't think you can let Luck move the ball down the field with Aaron Rodgers-like precision. Switching up the looks on D will not allow Luck to get comfortable in the pocket, and at Stanford, he struggled a little when forced to move around.
4. One at a time. Now this is one that mainstream media may touch on, but I had to do so also. This is a strange season as the Bears have to travel to Lambeau on a short week this early in the year. The Bears are naturally going to be accused of "looking ahead" if they don't dominate like I described in my first point. My biggest worry with looking ahead is that the Bears get too concerned about what they put out there on tape for Green Bay. For the most part, the Bears and Packers know what each other is going to try to do. They've played several times under the current head coaches. But I do worry that Mike Tice won't want to show his entire offensive repertoire in his first year as Bears OC. While the Bears should be able to beat the Colts with a vanilla gameplan, they shouldn't get caught up in that because of the Packers looming. Run your offense and force the 31st ranked pass defense from a year ago to stop it with 3 days to prepare.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
53-man roster analysis
QB (2)- Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell.
It's a little risky going into the season with only 2 QBs, especially with questions on the O-line, but this was the right move to get an extra body on the roster, since the Bears have a few injuries and have to carry 2 punters. If your 3rd QB has to play, it's probably a lost season anyway. My 53 had McCown getting cut, being able to keep Blanchard on the practice squad makes the situation fine.
RB (3)- Matt Forte, Michael Bush,Lorenzo Booker, Armando Allen.
Bears only kept 3 RBs last year with Forte, Barber and Bell...with Allen in waiting on the practice squad. Forte is seen as an injury risk, but last year was the first time he's missed a game in his 4-year career...every other RB in the league missed games over that span. He and Bush are as reliable as can be in the backfield. Allen will be in the waiting again, and maybe not too long. Podlesh will likely play Week 1, with Booker out. Allowing the Bears to cut Quigley and put Allen in his spot as the #3 RB. Apparently, Booker suffered a pretty bad concussion and was just put on IR, Allen was promoted to the 53-man roster to take his place.
WR (6)- Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems, Dane Sanzenbacher.
No surprises here. Best group of WRs in Chicago Bears history. I expect record breaking numbers for Marshall, with possible career highs in catches/yards for Hester and/or Bennett, with BM taking most of the attention.
TE/FB (4)- Kellen Davis, Matt Spaeth, Evan Rodriguez, Kyle Adams.
Surprised Tyler Clutts is not in this group, but there was only going to be 4 regardless. Thought Spaeth would be the odd man out, but he is the only decent blocker of this group. Rodriguez is listed at FB, but the Bears are basically going without this year. Hopefully, this move pans out.
OL (8)- J'Marcus Webb, Chris Spencer, Roberto Garza, Lance Louis, Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Chilo Rachal, Edwin Williams.
If the same 5 start all 16 games this year, the Bears will be an elite team. I honestly don't expect this group of 8 to even be the same at the trade deadline. The Bears will probably need to add a body here. Whether thru trade or on the waiver wire. Brown and Brandon are on the p-squad, but neither is ready. This group isn't attractive, but they just need to play just pretty enough to win games.
DL (9)- Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Stephen Paea, Henry Melton, Amobi Okoye, Matt Toeina, Shea McClellin, Corey Wootton, Cheta Ozougwu. Nate Collins (1-week suspension).
I think this is the key group. Gotta get Peppers some help this year. Idonije was a monster in preseason, dominating the Skins and being held (no calls though) all night vs. the Giants. Melton has to be more consistent. Paea has to stay on the field. At least 1 of the backup edge rushers need to provide something. A 3rd or 4th edge rusher would help the DT position as Idonije or Peppers could move inside on passing downs making that group stronger. This group will be 9 to start, and I think 10 when Collins is activated for Week 2.
LB (7)- Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nick Roach, Geno Hayes, Blake Costanzo, JT Thomas,Patrick Trahan.
This group is as strong as usual. Urlacher and Briggs together for the 10th straight year. Roach is going into his 4th year as a starter, which doesn't include 2010 when he started a couple games for Pisa Tinoisamoa. The backups all looked pretty solid in preseason, though Trahan may be the odd man out when Collins is activated. Did I say 53-man roster? I meant 52. Patrick Trahan also cut today, not yet filling his spot. Nate Collins needs a spot for next week, but even if he takes it, Ryan Quigley isn't long for this team, so look for a possible roster pickup in the next few days.
DB (10)- Charles Tillman, Chris Conte, Major Wright, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Craig Steltz, DJ Moore, Anthony Walters, Jeremy Jones, Sherrick McManis.
CBs are basically the same as last year. Hayden instead of Zach Bowman, McManis instead of Corey Graham. Hayden is a clear upgrade. Question is can Peanut Tillman still hang in there at CB? The questions at S continue, but Wright and Conte were the most used starting safety combo in 2011. This could be a strong position if the 2 recent 3rd round picks stay healthy and live up to their hype. Steltz is very experienced depth. 5th CB and 4th S could be issues, but the hope is it never gets to that.
Specialists (4)- Robbie Gould, Adam Podlesh, Patrick Mannelly, Ryan Quigley.
Again, Quigley may be gone by tomorrow with Podlesh listed as probable. But I believe this is the best group in the NFL. Gould is the 5th most accurate kicker in NFL history, and plays home games on a terrible field. Podlesh is a top 7 punter in the game. And Mr. Bear, Patrick Mannelly is back for his 15th season as long-snapper.
Overall, a pretty strong roster. Maybe the best Bears team on paper since 1986. This team has no Tommie Harris or Mike Brown like the 2006 Superbowl team had, but that team did not have Cutler and Marshall.
It's a little risky going into the season with only 2 QBs, especially with questions on the O-line, but this was the right move to get an extra body on the roster, since the Bears have a few injuries and have to carry 2 punters. If your 3rd QB has to play, it's probably a lost season anyway. My 53 had McCown getting cut, being able to keep Blanchard on the practice squad makes the situation fine.
RB (3)- Matt Forte, Michael Bush,
Bears only kept 3 RBs last year with Forte, Barber and Bell...with Allen in waiting on the practice squad. Forte is seen as an injury risk, but last year was the first time he's missed a game in his 4-year career...every other RB in the league missed games over that span. He and Bush are as reliable as can be in the backfield. Allen will be in the waiting again, and maybe not too long. Podlesh will likely play Week 1, with Booker out. Allowing the Bears to cut Quigley and put Allen in his spot as the #3 RB. Apparently, Booker suffered a pretty bad concussion and was just put on IR, Allen was promoted to the 53-man roster to take his place.
WR (6)- Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems, Dane Sanzenbacher.
No surprises here. Best group of WRs in Chicago Bears history. I expect record breaking numbers for Marshall, with possible career highs in catches/yards for Hester and/or Bennett, with BM taking most of the attention.
TE/FB (4)- Kellen Davis, Matt Spaeth, Evan Rodriguez, Kyle Adams.
Surprised Tyler Clutts is not in this group, but there was only going to be 4 regardless. Thought Spaeth would be the odd man out, but he is the only decent blocker of this group. Rodriguez is listed at FB, but the Bears are basically going without this year. Hopefully, this move pans out.
OL (8)- J'Marcus Webb, Chris Spencer, Roberto Garza, Lance Louis, Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Chilo Rachal, Edwin Williams.
If the same 5 start all 16 games this year, the Bears will be an elite team. I honestly don't expect this group of 8 to even be the same at the trade deadline. The Bears will probably need to add a body here. Whether thru trade or on the waiver wire. Brown and Brandon are on the p-squad, but neither is ready. This group isn't attractive, but they just need to play just pretty enough to win games.
DL (9)- Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Stephen Paea, Henry Melton, Amobi Okoye, Matt Toeina, Shea McClellin, Corey Wootton, Cheta Ozougwu. Nate Collins (1-week suspension).
I think this is the key group. Gotta get Peppers some help this year. Idonije was a monster in preseason, dominating the Skins and being held (no calls though) all night vs. the Giants. Melton has to be more consistent. Paea has to stay on the field. At least 1 of the backup edge rushers need to provide something. A 3rd or 4th edge rusher would help the DT position as Idonije or Peppers could move inside on passing downs making that group stronger. This group will be 9 to start, and I think 10 when Collins is activated for Week 2.
LB (7)- Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nick Roach, Geno Hayes, Blake Costanzo, JT Thomas,
This group is as strong as usual. Urlacher and Briggs together for the 10th straight year. Roach is going into his 4th year as a starter, which doesn't include 2010 when he started a couple games for Pisa Tinoisamoa. The backups all looked pretty solid in preseason, though Trahan may be the odd man out when Collins is activated. Did I say 53-man roster? I meant 52. Patrick Trahan also cut today, not yet filling his spot. Nate Collins needs a spot for next week, but even if he takes it, Ryan Quigley isn't long for this team, so look for a possible roster pickup in the next few days.
DB (10)- Charles Tillman, Chris Conte, Major Wright, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Craig Steltz, DJ Moore, Anthony Walters, Jeremy Jones, Sherrick McManis.
CBs are basically the same as last year. Hayden instead of Zach Bowman, McManis instead of Corey Graham. Hayden is a clear upgrade. Question is can Peanut Tillman still hang in there at CB? The questions at S continue, but Wright and Conte were the most used starting safety combo in 2011. This could be a strong position if the 2 recent 3rd round picks stay healthy and live up to their hype. Steltz is very experienced depth. 5th CB and 4th S could be issues, but the hope is it never gets to that.
Specialists (4)- Robbie Gould, Adam Podlesh, Patrick Mannelly, Ryan Quigley.
Again, Quigley may be gone by tomorrow with Podlesh listed as probable. But I believe this is the best group in the NFL. Gould is the 5th most accurate kicker in NFL history, and plays home games on a terrible field. Podlesh is a top 7 punter in the game. And Mr. Bear, Patrick Mannelly is back for his 15th season as long-snapper.
Overall, a pretty strong roster. Maybe the best Bears team on paper since 1986. This team has no Tommie Harris or Mike Brown like the 2006 Superbowl team had, but that team did not have Cutler and Marshall.
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